apply_ifr.py: add seasonal flu to comparison table
This commit is contained in:
Marc Bevand
@@ -1,4 +1,4 @@
|
|||||||
*Updated: 01 Oct 2020*
|
*Updated: 07 Oct 2020*
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
Author: Marc Bevand
|
Author: Marc Bevand
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
@@ -75,11 +75,14 @@ total_illnesses = symptomatic_illnesses / .575
|
|||||||
# Age-stratified IFR applied to countries' population pyramids
|
# Age-stratified IFR applied to countries' population pyramids
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
The script [apply_ifr.py](apply_ifr.py) uses a handful of age-stratified
|
The script [apply_ifr.py](apply_ifr.py) uses a handful of age-stratified
|
||||||
IFR estimates (from the chart above) and applies them to countries' population pyramids, to
|
IFR estimates for COVID-19 and the seasonal flu and
|
||||||
find their expected overall IFR assuming equal prevalence of the disease among all
|
applies them to countries' population pyramids, to find their expected average
|
||||||
age groups.
|
IFR. The calculation assumes equal prevalence of the disease among all age groups.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
Of course, the real-world overall IFR will dependent on many factors: varying
|
IFR estimates are a subset of the same sources as in `covid_vs_flu.py`. The flu
|
||||||
|
IFR is from the last flu season, 2019-2020.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
The real-world overall IFR will, of course, dependent on many factors: varying
|
||||||
prevalence among age groups, underlying health conditions, access to
|
prevalence among age groups, underlying health conditions, access to
|
||||||
healthcare, socioeconomic status, ethnicity, etc.
|
healthcare, socioeconomic status, ethnicity, etc.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
@@ -90,234 +93,237 @@ specifically the first sheet of [Population by Age Groups - Both Sexes](https://
|
|||||||
|
|
||||||
## Results
|
## Results
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
The overall expected IFR percentages are summarized in this table (sorted by
|
The overall expected IFR percentages are summarized in this table (sorted on the
|
||||||
IFR according to ENE-COV column):
|
ENE-COVID column):
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
| ENE-COV | US_CDC | Verity | Levin | Gudbj | O'Drisc | Region |
|
| ENE-COVID | COVID: US CDC | COVID: Verity | COVID: Levin | Flu: US CDC | Region |
|
||||||
| ------- | ------- | ------- | ------- | ------- | ------- | ------ |
|
| ------------- | ------------- | ------------- | ------------- | ------------- | ------ |
|
||||||
| 1.274 | 1.311 | 1.605 | 2.247 | 1.283 | 0.961 | Japan |
|
| 1.274 | 1.311 | 1.605 | 2.247 | 0.125 | Japan |
|
||||||
| 1.065 | 1.092 | 1.382 | 1.847 | 1.068 | 0.811 | Italy |
|
| 1.065 | 1.092 | 1.382 | 1.847 | 0.106 | Italy |
|
||||||
| 1.041 | 1.043 | 1.339 | 1.806 | 1.057 | 0.796 | Greece |
|
| 1.041 | 1.043 | 1.339 | 1.806 | 0.102 | Greece |
|
||||||
| 0.993 | 1.012 | 1.305 | 1.702 | 0.994 | 0.764 | Germany |
|
| 0.993 | 1.012 | 1.305 | 1.702 | 0.100 | Germany |
|
||||||
| 0.984 | 1.045 | 1.320 | 1.726 | 0.986 | 0.753 | Portugal |
|
| 0.984 | 1.045 | 1.320 | 1.726 | 0.104 | Portugal |
|
||||||
| 0.931 | 0.985 | 1.270 | 1.648 | 0.918 | 0.704 | Martinique |
|
| 0.931 | 0.985 | 1.270 | 1.648 | 0.100 | Martinique |
|
||||||
| 0.919 | 0.933 | 1.221 | 1.658 | 0.918 | 0.706 | Lithuania |
|
| 0.919 | 0.933 | 1.221 | 1.658 | 0.095 | Lithuania |
|
||||||
| 0.916 | 0.942 | 1.207 | 1.648 | 0.921 | 0.694 | Spain |
|
| 0.916 | 0.942 | 1.207 | 1.648 | 0.093 | Spain |
|
||||||
| 0.914 | 0.941 | 1.201 | 1.606 | 0.913 | 0.682 | France |
|
| 0.914 | 0.941 | 1.201 | 1.606 | 0.095 | France |
|
||||||
| 0.899 | 1.008 | 1.248 | 1.556 | 0.883 | 0.671 | Finland |
|
| 0.899 | 1.008 | 1.248 | 1.556 | 0.102 | Finland |
|
||||||
| 0.881 | 0.919 | 1.192 | 1.624 | 0.870 | 0.672 | Latvia |
|
| 0.881 | 0.919 | 1.192 | 1.624 | 0.095 | Latvia |
|
||||||
| 0.875 | 0.957 | 1.205 | 1.528 | 0.857 | 0.655 | Puerto Rico |
|
| 0.875 | 0.957 | 1.205 | 1.528 | 0.096 | Puerto Rico |
|
||||||
| 0.868 | 0.892 | 1.171 | 1.516 | 0.870 | 0.672 | Estonia |
|
| 0.868 | 0.892 | 1.171 | 1.516 | 0.093 | Estonia |
|
||||||
| 0.865 | 0.932 | 1.209 | 1.487 | 0.855 | 0.665 | Croatia |
|
| 0.865 | 0.932 | 1.209 | 1.487 | 0.098 | Croatia |
|
||||||
| 0.855 | 0.965 | 1.205 | 1.471 | 0.835 | 0.637 | Malta |
|
| 0.855 | 0.965 | 1.205 | 1.471 | 0.099 | Malta |
|
||||||
| 0.846 | 0.881 | 1.137 | 1.478 | 0.847 | 0.639 | Belgium |
|
| 0.846 | 0.881 | 1.137 | 1.478 | 0.089 | Belgium |
|
||||||
| 0.843 | 0.905 | 1.181 | 1.489 | 0.829 | 0.645 | Slovenia |
|
| 0.843 | 0.905 | 1.181 | 1.489 | 0.095 | Slovenia |
|
||||||
| 0.840 | 0.943 | 1.154 | 1.471 | 0.838 | 0.632 | Sweden |
|
| 0.840 | 0.943 | 1.154 | 1.471 | 0.093 | Sweden |
|
||||||
| 0.836 | 0.910 | 1.149 | 1.462 | 0.830 | 0.638 | Austria |
|
| 0.836 | 0.910 | 1.149 | 1.462 | 0.090 | Austria |
|
||||||
| 0.825 | 0.897 | 1.132 | 1.447 | 0.819 | 0.624 | Switzerland |
|
| 0.825 | 0.897 | 1.132 | 1.447 | 0.089 | Switzerland |
|
||||||
| 0.810 | 0.861 | 1.117 | 1.396 | 0.802 | 0.615 | Europe |
|
| 0.810 | 0.861 | 1.117 | 1.396 | 0.089 | Europe |
|
||||||
| 0.802 | 0.909 | 1.141 | 1.394 | 0.785 | 0.603 | Netherlands |
|
| 0.802 | 0.909 | 1.141 | 1.394 | 0.093 | Netherlands |
|
||||||
| 0.801 | 0.949 | 1.181 | 1.377 | 0.779 | 0.608 | Bulgaria |
|
| 0.801 | 0.949 | 1.181 | 1.377 | 0.098 | Bulgaria |
|
||||||
| 0.798 | 0.864 | 1.113 | 1.399 | 0.779 | 0.600 | Guadeloupe |
|
| 0.798 | 0.864 | 1.113 | 1.399 | 0.090 | Guadeloupe |
|
||||||
| 0.797 | 0.935 | 1.136 | 1.370 | 0.782 | 0.595 | Denmark |
|
| 0.797 | 0.935 | 1.136 | 1.370 | 0.093 | Denmark |
|
||||||
| 0.794 | 0.868 | 1.089 | 1.384 | 0.794 | 0.598 | United Kingdom |
|
| 0.794 | 0.868 | 1.089 | 1.384 | 0.087 | United Kingdom |
|
||||||
| 0.791 | 0.811 | 1.102 | 1.367 | 0.761 | 0.588 | China, Hong Kong SAR |
|
| 0.791 | 0.811 | 1.102 | 1.367 | 0.087 | China, Hong Kong SAR |
|
||||||
| 0.759 | 0.830 | 1.090 | 1.285 | 0.745 | 0.578 | Romania |
|
| 0.759 | 0.830 | 1.090 | 1.285 | 0.089 | Romania |
|
||||||
| 0.753 | 0.854 | 1.101 | 1.323 | 0.732 | 0.573 | Hungary |
|
| 0.753 | 0.854 | 1.101 | 1.323 | 0.093 | Hungary |
|
||||||
| 0.745 | 0.800 | 1.064 | 1.285 | 0.724 | 0.557 | Poland |
|
| 0.745 | 0.800 | 1.064 | 1.285 | 0.087 | Poland |
|
||||||
| 0.739 | 0.828 | 1.059 | 1.315 | 0.737 | 0.565 | Channel Islands |
|
| 0.739 | 0.828 | 1.059 | 1.315 | 0.084 | Channel Islands |
|
||||||
| 0.738 | 0.878 | 1.092 | 1.302 | 0.717 | 0.555 | Czechia |
|
| 0.738 | 0.878 | 1.092 | 1.302 | 0.092 | Czechia |
|
||||||
| 0.734 | 0.810 | 1.047 | 1.288 | 0.714 | 0.548 | Canada |
|
| 0.734 | 0.810 | 1.047 | 1.288 | 0.085 | Canada |
|
||||||
| 0.719 | 0.756 | 0.998 | 1.259 | 0.705 | 0.534 | Barbados |
|
| 0.719 | 0.756 | 0.998 | 1.259 | 0.079 | Barbados |
|
||||||
| 0.713 | 0.808 | 1.038 | 1.210 | 0.694 | 0.538 | Curaçao |
|
| 0.713 | 0.808 | 1.038 | 1.210 | 0.084 | Curaçao |
|
||||||
| 0.709 | 0.802 | 1.007 | 1.239 | 0.699 | 0.528 | Norway |
|
| 0.709 | 0.802 | 1.007 | 1.239 | 0.082 | Norway |
|
||||||
| 0.680 | 0.800 | 1.029 | 1.160 | 0.659 | 0.515 | Serbia |
|
| 0.680 | 0.800 | 1.029 | 1.160 | 0.088 | Serbia |
|
||||||
| 0.676 | 0.694 | 0.904 | 1.193 | 0.686 | 0.505 | Uruguay |
|
| 0.676 | 0.694 | 0.904 | 1.193 | 0.071 | Uruguay |
|
||||||
| 0.675 | 0.745 | 0.967 | 1.181 | 0.660 | 0.503 | Northern America |
|
| 0.675 | 0.745 | 0.967 | 1.181 | 0.079 | Northern America |
|
||||||
| 0.671 | 0.736 | 0.944 | 1.174 | 0.670 | 0.503 | Australia |
|
| 0.671 | 0.736 | 0.944 | 1.174 | 0.076 | Australia |
|
||||||
| 0.671 | 0.733 | 0.983 | 1.103 | 0.651 | 0.513 | Ukraine |
|
| 0.671 | 0.733 | 0.983 | 1.103 | 0.080 | Ukraine |
|
||||||
| 0.669 | 0.738 | 0.958 | 1.169 | 0.654 | 0.497 | United States of America |
|
| 0.669 | 0.738 | 0.958 | 1.169 | 0.078 | United States of America |
|
||||||
| 0.659 | 0.757 | 1.011 | 1.088 | 0.620 | 0.503 | Bosnia and Herzegovina |
|
| 0.659 | 0.757 | 1.011 | 1.088 | 0.085 | Bosnia and Herzegovina |
|
||||||
| 0.654 | 0.742 | 0.945 | 1.137 | 0.645 | 0.490 | New Zealand |
|
| 0.654 | 0.742 | 0.945 | 1.137 | 0.077 | New Zealand |
|
||||||
| 0.644 | 0.735 | 0.941 | 1.131 | 0.630 | 0.489 | Cuba |
|
| 0.644 | 0.735 | 0.941 | 1.131 | 0.077 | Cuba |
|
||||||
| 0.641 | 0.877 | 1.059 | 1.152 | 0.608 | 0.491 | United States Virgin Islands |
|
| 0.641 | 0.877 | 1.059 | 1.152 | 0.094 | United States Virgin Islands |
|
||||||
| 0.633 | 0.725 | 0.963 | 1.090 | 0.606 | 0.483 | Republic of Korea |
|
| 0.633 | 0.725 | 0.963 | 1.090 | 0.077 | Republic of Korea |
|
||||||
| 0.628 | 0.686 | 0.938 | 1.100 | 0.599 | 0.472 | China, Taiwan Province of China |
|
| 0.628 | 0.686 | 0.938 | 1.100 | 0.077 | China, Taiwan Province of China |
|
||||||
| 0.624 | 0.663 | 0.916 | 1.030 | 0.606 | 0.473 | Russian Federation |
|
| 0.624 | 0.663 | 0.916 | 1.030 | 0.074 | Russian Federation |
|
||||||
| 0.624 | 0.657 | 0.921 | 1.082 | 0.606 | 0.483 | Belarus |
|
| 0.624 | 0.657 | 0.921 | 1.082 | 0.075 | Belarus |
|
||||||
| 0.615 | 0.668 | 0.881 | 1.078 | 0.616 | 0.467 | Luxembourg |
|
| 0.615 | 0.668 | 0.881 | 1.078 | 0.070 | Luxembourg |
|
||||||
| 0.607 | 0.670 | 0.896 | 1.002 | 0.598 | 0.464 | Georgia |
|
| 0.607 | 0.670 | 0.896 | 1.002 | 0.073 | Georgia |
|
||||||
| 0.605 | 0.683 | 0.888 | 1.061 | 0.599 | 0.453 | Iceland |
|
| 0.605 | 0.683 | 0.888 | 1.061 | 0.073 | Iceland |
|
||||||
| 0.604 | 0.709 | 0.935 | 1.059 | 0.580 | 0.457 | Slovakia |
|
| 0.604 | 0.709 | 0.935 | 1.059 | 0.079 | Slovakia |
|
||||||
| 0.582 | 0.667 | 0.891 | 0.989 | 0.567 | 0.444 | Montenegro |
|
| 0.582 | 0.667 | 0.891 | 0.989 | 0.075 | Montenegro |
|
||||||
| 0.563 | 0.653 | 0.838 | 0.972 | 0.559 | 0.424 | Ireland |
|
| 0.563 | 0.653 | 0.838 | 0.972 | 0.070 | Ireland |
|
||||||
| 0.561 | 0.649 | 0.839 | 0.957 | 0.559 | 0.426 | Cyprus |
|
| 0.561 | 0.649 | 0.839 | 0.957 | 0.069 | Cyprus |
|
||||||
| 0.548 | 0.659 | 0.857 | 0.941 | 0.533 | 0.418 | Albania |
|
| 0.548 | 0.659 | 0.857 | 0.941 | 0.071 | Albania |
|
||||||
| 0.531 | 0.652 | 0.874 | 0.920 | 0.508 | 0.412 | Aruba |
|
| 0.531 | 0.652 | 0.874 | 0.920 | 0.072 | Aruba |
|
||||||
| 0.518 | 0.580 | 0.754 | 0.902 | 0.526 | 0.388 | Oceania |
|
| 0.518 | 0.580 | 0.754 | 0.902 | 0.062 | Oceania |
|
||||||
| 0.510 | 0.588 | 0.795 | 0.881 | 0.491 | 0.385 | Thailand |
|
| 0.510 | 0.588 | 0.795 | 0.881 | 0.065 | Thailand |
|
||||||
| 0.500 | 0.569 | 0.763 | 0.880 | 0.493 | 0.377 | Réunion |
|
| 0.500 | 0.569 | 0.763 | 0.880 | 0.063 | Réunion |
|
||||||
| 0.499 | 0.545 | 0.710 | 0.872 | 0.516 | 0.371 | Israel |
|
| 0.499 | 0.545 | 0.710 | 0.872 | 0.060 | Israel |
|
||||||
| 0.497 | 0.522 | 0.748 | 0.794 | 0.491 | 0.377 | Armenia |
|
| 0.497 | 0.522 | 0.748 | 0.794 | 0.059 | Armenia |
|
||||||
| 0.497 | 0.616 | 0.816 | 0.851 | 0.474 | 0.378 | North Macedonia |
|
| 0.497 | 0.616 | 0.816 | 0.851 | 0.070 | North Macedonia |
|
||||||
| 0.493 | 0.550 | 0.736 | 0.861 | 0.492 | 0.370 | Chile |
|
| 0.493 | 0.550 | 0.736 | 0.861 | 0.061 | Chile |
|
||||||
| 0.479 | 0.550 | 0.796 | 0.829 | 0.433 | 0.356 | Singapore |
|
| 0.479 | 0.550 | 0.796 | 0.829 | 0.067 | Singapore |
|
||||||
| 0.454 | 0.515 | 0.671 | 0.790 | 0.471 | 0.343 | Argentina |
|
| 0.454 | 0.515 | 0.671 | 0.790 | 0.056 | Argentina |
|
||||||
| 0.449 | 0.514 | 0.738 | 0.770 | 0.412 | 0.328 | China, Macao SAR |
|
| 0.449 | 0.514 | 0.738 | 0.770 | 0.062 | China, Macao SAR |
|
||||||
| 0.447 | 0.544 | 0.732 | 0.772 | 0.425 | 0.331 | Mauritius |
|
| 0.447 | 0.544 | 0.732 | 0.772 | 0.063 | Mauritius |
|
||||||
| 0.435 | 0.501 | 0.721 | 0.766 | 0.413 | 0.332 | Republic of Moldova |
|
| 0.435 | 0.501 | 0.721 | 0.766 | 0.062 | Republic of Moldova |
|
||||||
| 0.415 | 0.511 | 0.681 | 0.717 | 0.402 | 0.310 | Trinidad and Tobago |
|
| 0.415 | 0.511 | 0.681 | 0.717 | 0.058 | Trinidad and Tobago |
|
||||||
| 0.413 | 0.475 | 0.638 | 0.712 | 0.417 | 0.309 | Costa Rica |
|
| 0.413 | 0.475 | 0.638 | 0.712 | 0.053 | Costa Rica |
|
||||||
| 0.413 | 0.468 | 0.626 | 0.704 | 0.413 | 0.304 | Saint Lucia |
|
| 0.413 | 0.468 | 0.626 | 0.704 | 0.051 | Saint Lucia |
|
||||||
| 0.409 | 0.507 | 0.695 | 0.707 | 0.385 | 0.308 | China |
|
| 0.409 | 0.507 | 0.695 | 0.707 | 0.061 | China |
|
||||||
| 0.394 | 0.497 | 0.648 | 0.712 | 0.409 | 0.303 | Antigua and Barbuda |
|
| 0.394 | 0.497 | 0.648 | 0.712 | 0.052 | Antigua and Barbuda |
|
||||||
| 0.387 | 0.495 | 0.651 | 0.668 | 0.377 | 0.286 | Sri Lanka |
|
| 0.387 | 0.495 | 0.651 | 0.668 | 0.056 | Sri Lanka |
|
||||||
| 0.377 | 0.487 | 0.635 | 0.622 | 0.373 | 0.284 | Dem. People's Republic of Korea |
|
| 0.377 | 0.487 | 0.635 | 0.622 | 0.050 | Dem. People's Republic of Korea |
|
||||||
| 0.376 | 0.437 | 0.594 | 0.645 | 0.382 | 0.282 | Brazil |
|
| 0.376 | 0.437 | 0.594 | 0.645 | 0.050 | Brazil |
|
||||||
| 0.365 | 0.464 | 0.611 | 0.618 | 0.373 | 0.279 | Guam |
|
| 0.365 | 0.464 | 0.611 | 0.618 | 0.052 | Guam |
|
||||||
| 0.364 | 0.425 | 0.569 | 0.627 | 0.381 | 0.275 | Jamaica |
|
| 0.364 | 0.425 | 0.569 | 0.627 | 0.047 | Jamaica |
|
||||||
| 0.361 | 0.454 | 0.605 | 0.663 | 0.375 | 0.279 | Saint Vincent and the Grenadines |
|
| 0.361 | 0.454 | 0.605 | 0.663 | 0.051 | Saint Vincent and the Grenadines |
|
||||||
| 0.359 | 0.399 | 0.540 | 0.623 | 0.380 | 0.269 | Panama |
|
| 0.359 | 0.399 | 0.540 | 0.623 | 0.045 | Panama |
|
||||||
| 0.358 | 0.418 | 0.566 | 0.615 | 0.370 | 0.269 | WORLD |
|
| 0.358 | 0.418 | 0.566 | 0.615 | 0.048 | WORLD |
|
||||||
| 0.356 | 0.410 | 0.555 | 0.614 | 0.371 | 0.267 | Latin America and the Caribbean |
|
| 0.356 | 0.410 | 0.555 | 0.614 | 0.047 | Latin America and the Caribbean |
|
||||||
| 0.355 | 0.412 | 0.560 | 0.613 | 0.367 | 0.267 | Colombia |
|
| 0.355 | 0.412 | 0.560 | 0.613 | 0.047 | Colombia |
|
||||||
| 0.354 | 0.438 | 0.595 | 0.642 | 0.368 | 0.271 | Grenada |
|
| 0.354 | 0.438 | 0.595 | 0.642 | 0.050 | Grenada |
|
||||||
| 0.347 | 0.399 | 0.528 | 0.595 | 0.377 | 0.265 | El Salvador |
|
| 0.347 | 0.399 | 0.528 | 0.595 | 0.045 | El Salvador |
|
||||||
| 0.343 | 0.363 | 0.528 | 0.602 | 0.355 | 0.257 | Viet Nam |
|
| 0.343 | 0.363 | 0.528 | 0.602 | 0.043 | Viet Nam |
|
||||||
| 0.342 | 0.408 | 0.552 | 0.588 | 0.356 | 0.260 | Turkey |
|
| 0.342 | 0.408 | 0.552 | 0.588 | 0.047 | Turkey |
|
||||||
| 0.339 | 0.397 | 0.537 | 0.583 | 0.358 | 0.258 | Peru |
|
| 0.339 | 0.397 | 0.537 | 0.583 | 0.045 | Peru |
|
||||||
| 0.336 | 0.394 | 0.553 | 0.579 | 0.344 | 0.256 | Tunisia |
|
| 0.336 | 0.394 | 0.553 | 0.579 | 0.047 | Tunisia |
|
||||||
| 0.327 | 0.432 | 0.573 | 0.547 | 0.328 | 0.249 | New Caledonia |
|
| 0.327 | 0.432 | 0.573 | 0.547 | 0.049 | New Caledonia |
|
||||||
| 0.325 | 0.394 | 0.541 | 0.559 | 0.331 | 0.245 | Asia |
|
| 0.325 | 0.394 | 0.541 | 0.559 | 0.047 | Asia |
|
||||||
| 0.310 | 0.350 | 0.463 | 0.535 | 0.346 | 0.233 | Bolivia (Plurinational State of) |
|
| 0.310 | 0.350 | 0.463 | 0.535 | 0.039 | Bolivia (Plurinational State of) |
|
||||||
| 0.309 | 0.348 | 0.480 | 0.532 | 0.333 | 0.232 | Dominican Republic |
|
| 0.309 | 0.348 | 0.480 | 0.532 | 0.040 | Dominican Republic |
|
||||||
| 0.307 | 0.348 | 0.503 | 0.505 | 0.319 | 0.236 | Kazakhstan |
|
| 0.307 | 0.348 | 0.503 | 0.505 | 0.042 | Kazakhstan |
|
||||||
| 0.306 | 0.352 | 0.485 | 0.532 | 0.327 | 0.230 | Mexico |
|
| 0.306 | 0.352 | 0.485 | 0.532 | 0.041 | Mexico |
|
||||||
| 0.305 | 0.365 | 0.502 | 0.526 | 0.317 | 0.228 | Venezuela (Bolivarian Republic of) |
|
| 0.305 | 0.365 | 0.502 | 0.526 | 0.042 | Venezuela (Bolivarian Republic of) |
|
||||||
| 0.303 | 0.347 | 0.474 | 0.525 | 0.329 | 0.228 | Ecuador |
|
| 0.303 | 0.347 | 0.474 | 0.525 | 0.040 | Ecuador |
|
||||||
| 0.295 | 0.346 | 0.482 | 0.501 | 0.317 | 0.225 | Lebanon |
|
| 0.295 | 0.346 | 0.482 | 0.501 | 0.041 | Lebanon |
|
||||||
| 0.293 | 0.400 | 0.542 | 0.477 | 0.284 | 0.225 | Seychelles |
|
| 0.293 | 0.400 | 0.542 | 0.477 | 0.045 | Seychelles |
|
||||||
| 0.287 | 0.384 | 0.527 | 0.513 | 0.286 | 0.220 | French Polynesia |
|
| 0.287 | 0.384 | 0.527 | 0.513 | 0.046 | French Polynesia |
|
||||||
| 0.282 | 0.326 | 0.456 | 0.456 | 0.298 | 0.208 | Guyana |
|
| 0.282 | 0.326 | 0.456 | 0.456 | 0.038 | Guyana |
|
||||||
| 0.280 | 0.335 | 0.463 | 0.469 | 0.298 | 0.211 | Suriname |
|
| 0.280 | 0.335 | 0.463 | 0.469 | 0.039 | Suriname |
|
||||||
| 0.273 | 0.313 | 0.474 | 0.452 | 0.279 | 0.208 | Azerbaijan |
|
| 0.273 | 0.313 | 0.474 | 0.452 | 0.039 | Azerbaijan |
|
||||||
| 0.272 | 0.337 | 0.474 | 0.462 | 0.284 | 0.207 | Morocco |
|
| 0.272 | 0.337 | 0.474 | 0.462 | 0.041 | Morocco |
|
||||||
| 0.269 | 0.358 | 0.495 | 0.460 | 0.272 | 0.206 | Bahamas |
|
| 0.269 | 0.358 | 0.495 | 0.460 | 0.042 | Bahamas |
|
||||||
| 0.263 | 0.325 | 0.453 | 0.442 | 0.279 | 0.196 | Malaysia |
|
| 0.263 | 0.325 | 0.453 | 0.442 | 0.039 | Malaysia |
|
||||||
| 0.260 | 0.305 | 0.426 | 0.446 | 0.289 | 0.198 | Algeria |
|
| 0.260 | 0.305 | 0.426 | 0.446 | 0.037 | Algeria |
|
||||||
| 0.257 | 0.307 | 0.418 | 0.436 | 0.287 | 0.193 | Paraguay |
|
| 0.257 | 0.307 | 0.418 | 0.436 | 0.037 | Paraguay |
|
||||||
| 0.251 | 0.297 | 0.403 | 0.423 | 0.288 | 0.190 | Bhutan |
|
| 0.251 | 0.297 | 0.403 | 0.423 | 0.035 | Bhutan |
|
||||||
| 0.246 | 0.301 | 0.431 | 0.418 | 0.263 | 0.186 | Iran (Islamic Republic of) |
|
| 0.246 | 0.301 | 0.431 | 0.418 | 0.037 | Iran (Islamic Republic of) |
|
||||||
| 0.234 | 0.293 | 0.414 | 0.398 | 0.253 | 0.176 | India |
|
| 0.234 | 0.293 | 0.414 | 0.398 | 0.037 | India |
|
||||||
| 0.229 | 0.293 | 0.416 | 0.387 | 0.244 | 0.172 | Indonesia |
|
| 0.229 | 0.293 | 0.416 | 0.387 | 0.036 | Indonesia |
|
||||||
| 0.228 | 0.259 | 0.373 | 0.393 | 0.262 | 0.173 | Nicaragua |
|
| 0.228 | 0.259 | 0.373 | 0.393 | 0.032 | Nicaragua |
|
||||||
| 0.221 | 0.269 | 0.368 | 0.374 | 0.255 | 0.167 | Bangladesh |
|
| 0.221 | 0.269 | 0.368 | 0.374 | 0.031 | Bangladesh |
|
||||||
| 0.221 | 0.232 | 0.349 | 0.374 | 0.260 | 0.170 | Cabo Verde |
|
| 0.221 | 0.232 | 0.349 | 0.374 | 0.029 | Cabo Verde |
|
||||||
| 0.217 | 0.284 | 0.375 | 0.310 | 0.247 | 0.163 | Tonga |
|
| 0.217 | 0.284 | 0.375 | 0.310 | 0.032 | Tonga |
|
||||||
| 0.215 | 0.277 | 0.401 | 0.366 | 0.228 | 0.161 | Myanmar |
|
| 0.215 | 0.277 | 0.401 | 0.366 | 0.036 | Myanmar |
|
||||||
| 0.208 | 0.235 | 0.334 | 0.351 | 0.244 | 0.153 | Belize |
|
| 0.208 | 0.235 | 0.334 | 0.351 | 0.029 | Belize |
|
||||||
| 0.206 | 0.235 | 0.331 | 0.353 | 0.249 | 0.155 | Honduras |
|
| 0.206 | 0.235 | 0.331 | 0.353 | 0.029 | Honduras |
|
||||||
| 0.204 | 0.233 | 0.323 | 0.349 | 0.253 | 0.155 | Guatemala |
|
| 0.204 | 0.233 | 0.323 | 0.349 | 0.029 | Guatemala |
|
||||||
| 0.204 | 0.255 | 0.360 | 0.342 | 0.232 | 0.152 | Philippines |
|
| 0.204 | 0.255 | 0.360 | 0.342 | 0.032 | Philippines |
|
||||||
| 0.202 | 0.267 | 0.360 | 0.344 | 0.232 | 0.151 | Nepal |
|
| 0.202 | 0.267 | 0.360 | 0.344 | 0.033 | Nepal |
|
||||||
| 0.197 | 0.249 | 0.381 | 0.331 | 0.210 | 0.149 | Brunei Darussalam |
|
| 0.197 | 0.249 | 0.381 | 0.331 | 0.032 | Brunei Darussalam |
|
||||||
| 0.194 | 0.237 | 0.331 | 0.330 | 0.233 | 0.146 | Haiti |
|
| 0.194 | 0.237 | 0.331 | 0.330 | 0.030 | Haiti |
|
||||||
| 0.193 | 0.251 | 0.355 | 0.325 | 0.220 | 0.145 | South Africa |
|
| 0.193 | 0.251 | 0.355 | 0.325 | 0.032 | South Africa |
|
||||||
| 0.193 | 0.222 | 0.339 | 0.316 | 0.220 | 0.145 | Turkmenistan |
|
| 0.193 | 0.222 | 0.339 | 0.316 | 0.029 | Turkmenistan |
|
||||||
| 0.192 | 0.247 | 0.343 | 0.321 | 0.224 | 0.142 | Egypt |
|
| 0.192 | 0.247 | 0.343 | 0.321 | 0.031 | Egypt |
|
||||||
| 0.192 | 0.262 | 0.376 | 0.318 | 0.206 | 0.142 | Fiji |
|
| 0.192 | 0.262 | 0.376 | 0.318 | 0.033 | Fiji |
|
||||||
| 0.188 | 0.220 | 0.335 | 0.310 | 0.217 | 0.141 | Kyrgyzstan |
|
| 0.188 | 0.220 | 0.335 | 0.310 | 0.029 | Kyrgyzstan |
|
||||||
| 0.188 | 0.245 | 0.353 | 0.344 | 0.216 | 0.143 | French Guiana |
|
| 0.188 | 0.245 | 0.353 | 0.344 | 0.031 | French Guiana |
|
||||||
| 0.187 | 0.219 | 0.340 | 0.317 | 0.212 | 0.142 | Uzbekistan |
|
| 0.187 | 0.219 | 0.340 | 0.317 | 0.029 | Uzbekistan |
|
||||||
| 0.185 | 0.224 | 0.323 | 0.317 | 0.222 | 0.140 | Syrian Arab Republic |
|
| 0.185 | 0.224 | 0.323 | 0.317 | 0.029 | Syrian Arab Republic |
|
||||||
| 0.182 | 0.226 | 0.324 | 0.307 | 0.216 | 0.140 | Libya |
|
| 0.182 | 0.226 | 0.324 | 0.307 | 0.028 | Libya |
|
||||||
| 0.181 | 0.229 | 0.319 | 0.308 | 0.221 | 0.136 | Lesotho |
|
| 0.181 | 0.229 | 0.319 | 0.308 | 0.029 | Lesotho |
|
||||||
| 0.173 | 0.216 | 0.320 | 0.294 | 0.201 | 0.130 | Mongolia |
|
| 0.173 | 0.216 | 0.320 | 0.294 | 0.027 | Mongolia |
|
||||||
| 0.170 | 0.225 | 0.317 | 0.287 | 0.205 | 0.128 | Djibouti |
|
| 0.170 | 0.225 | 0.317 | 0.287 | 0.028 | Djibouti |
|
||||||
| 0.170 | 0.238 | 0.325 | 0.271 | 0.197 | 0.126 | Samoa |
|
| 0.170 | 0.238 | 0.325 | 0.271 | 0.029 | Samoa |
|
||||||
| 0.168 | 0.221 | 0.314 | 0.288 | 0.199 | 0.126 | Cambodia |
|
| 0.168 | 0.221 | 0.314 | 0.288 | 0.029 | Cambodia |
|
||||||
| 0.164 | 0.210 | 0.292 | 0.274 | 0.206 | 0.123 | Pakistan |
|
| 0.164 | 0.210 | 0.292 | 0.274 | 0.026 | Pakistan |
|
||||||
| 0.158 | 0.204 | 0.273 | 0.268 | 0.208 | 0.118 | Eritrea |
|
| 0.158 | 0.204 | 0.273 | 0.268 | 0.026 | Eritrea |
|
||||||
| 0.157 | 0.183 | 0.277 | 0.252 | 0.203 | 0.123 | Maldives |
|
| 0.157 | 0.183 | 0.277 | 0.252 | 0.024 | Maldives |
|
||||||
| 0.157 | 0.194 | 0.268 | 0.281 | 0.212 | 0.120 | Mayotte |
|
| 0.157 | 0.194 | 0.268 | 0.281 | 0.024 | Mayotte |
|
||||||
| 0.156 | 0.199 | 0.279 | 0.260 | 0.199 | 0.118 | Jordan |
|
| 0.156 | 0.199 | 0.279 | 0.260 | 0.025 | Jordan |
|
||||||
| 0.155 | 0.203 | 0.289 | 0.263 | 0.193 | 0.115 | Botswana |
|
| 0.155 | 0.203 | 0.289 | 0.263 | 0.027 | Botswana |
|
||||||
| 0.154 | 0.199 | 0.287 | 0.257 | 0.191 | 0.115 | Lao People's Democratic Republic |
|
| 0.154 | 0.199 | 0.287 | 0.257 | 0.026 | Lao People's Democratic Republic |
|
||||||
| 0.152 | 0.209 | 0.279 | 0.253 | 0.197 | 0.113 | Timor-Leste |
|
| 0.152 | 0.209 | 0.279 | 0.253 | 0.025 | Timor-Leste |
|
||||||
| 0.146 | 0.180 | 0.282 | 0.248 | 0.177 | 0.112 | Saudi Arabia |
|
| 0.146 | 0.180 | 0.282 | 0.248 | 0.024 | Saudi Arabia |
|
||||||
| 0.145 | 0.187 | 0.254 | 0.239 | 0.199 | 0.109 | Eswatini |
|
| 0.145 | 0.187 | 0.254 | 0.239 | 0.024 | Eswatini |
|
||||||
| 0.139 | 0.173 | 0.248 | 0.234 | 0.188 | 0.104 | Namibia |
|
| 0.139 | 0.173 | 0.248 | 0.234 | 0.023 | Namibia |
|
||||||
| 0.135 | 0.176 | 0.302 | 0.222 | 0.145 | 0.103 | Kuwait |
|
| 0.135 | 0.176 | 0.302 | 0.222 | 0.024 | Kuwait |
|
||||||
| 0.134 | 0.173 | 0.244 | 0.224 | 0.183 | 0.100 | Sudan |
|
| 0.134 | 0.173 | 0.244 | 0.224 | 0.023 | Sudan |
|
||||||
| 0.133 | 0.173 | 0.245 | 0.221 | 0.182 | 0.101 | Gabon |
|
| 0.133 | 0.173 | 0.245 | 0.221 | 0.023 | Gabon |
|
||||||
| 0.130 | 0.167 | 0.231 | 0.216 | 0.183 | 0.096 | Ethiopia |
|
| 0.130 | 0.167 | 0.231 | 0.216 | 0.022 | Ethiopia |
|
||||||
| 0.130 | 0.174 | 0.242 | 0.224 | 0.179 | 0.098 | Solomon Islands |
|
| 0.130 | 0.174 | 0.242 | 0.224 | 0.023 | Solomon Islands |
|
||||||
| 0.128 | 0.158 | 0.245 | 0.207 | 0.169 | 0.095 | Tajikistan |
|
| 0.128 | 0.158 | 0.245 | 0.207 | 0.022 | Tajikistan |
|
||||||
| 0.127 | 0.165 | 0.236 | 0.212 | 0.176 | 0.094 | Africa |
|
| 0.127 | 0.165 | 0.236 | 0.212 | 0.022 | Africa |
|
||||||
| 0.125 | 0.157 | 0.229 | 0.212 | 0.176 | 0.095 | Iraq |
|
| 0.125 | 0.157 | 0.229 | 0.212 | 0.022 | Iraq |
|
||||||
| 0.125 | 0.150 | 0.253 | 0.199 | 0.156 | 0.093 | Bahrain |
|
| 0.125 | 0.150 | 0.253 | 0.199 | 0.021 | Bahrain |
|
||||||
| 0.124 | 0.163 | 0.225 | 0.204 | 0.176 | 0.092 | South Sudan |
|
| 0.124 | 0.163 | 0.225 | 0.204 | 0.021 | South Sudan |
|
||||||
| 0.123 | 0.168 | 0.244 | 0.196 | 0.163 | 0.091 | Vanuatu |
|
| 0.123 | 0.168 | 0.244 | 0.196 | 0.023 | Vanuatu |
|
||||||
| 0.122 | 0.165 | 0.247 | 0.204 | 0.160 | 0.090 | Papua New Guinea |
|
| 0.122 | 0.165 | 0.247 | 0.204 | 0.023 | Papua New Guinea |
|
||||||
| 0.121 | 0.157 | 0.226 | 0.203 | 0.171 | 0.091 | Liberia |
|
| 0.121 | 0.157 | 0.226 | 0.203 | 0.021 | Liberia |
|
||||||
| 0.121 | 0.157 | 0.222 | 0.203 | 0.173 | 0.090 | Benin |
|
| 0.121 | 0.157 | 0.222 | 0.203 | 0.021 | Benin |
|
||||||
| 0.120 | 0.155 | 0.224 | 0.199 | 0.170 | 0.089 | Mauritania |
|
| 0.120 | 0.155 | 0.224 | 0.199 | 0.021 | Mauritania |
|
||||||
| 0.120 | 0.157 | 0.222 | 0.196 | 0.171 | 0.089 | State of Palestine |
|
| 0.120 | 0.157 | 0.222 | 0.196 | 0.021 | State of Palestine |
|
||||||
| 0.119 | 0.150 | 0.219 | 0.173 | 0.170 | 0.089 | Sao Tome and Principe |
|
| 0.119 | 0.150 | 0.219 | 0.173 | 0.020 | Sao Tome and Principe |
|
||||||
| 0.118 | 0.178 | 0.278 | 0.228 | 0.136 | 0.087 | Micronesia (Fed. States of) |
|
| 0.118 | 0.178 | 0.278 | 0.228 | 0.027 | Micronesia (Fed. States of) |
|
||||||
| 0.118 | 0.138 | 0.222 | 0.195 | 0.165 | 0.090 | Oman |
|
| 0.118 | 0.138 | 0.222 | 0.195 | 0.020 | Oman |
|
||||||
| 0.118 | 0.160 | 0.260 | 0.195 | 0.143 | 0.087 | Western Sahara |
|
| 0.118 | 0.160 | 0.260 | 0.195 | 0.024 | Western Sahara |
|
||||||
| 0.116 | 0.157 | 0.230 | 0.190 | 0.159 | 0.085 | Ghana |
|
| 0.116 | 0.157 | 0.230 | 0.190 | 0.021 | Ghana |
|
||||||
| 0.116 | 0.146 | 0.216 | 0.193 | 0.166 | 0.086 | Madagascar |
|
| 0.116 | 0.146 | 0.216 | 0.193 | 0.020 | Madagascar |
|
||||||
| 0.113 | 0.149 | 0.220 | 0.193 | 0.162 | 0.085 | Comoros |
|
| 0.113 | 0.149 | 0.220 | 0.193 | 0.021 | Comoros |
|
||||||
| 0.112 | 0.142 | 0.205 | 0.188 | 0.169 | 0.085 | Zimbabwe |
|
| 0.112 | 0.142 | 0.205 | 0.188 | 0.020 | Zimbabwe |
|
||||||
| 0.112 | 0.146 | 0.216 | 0.193 | 0.161 | 0.083 | Rwanda |
|
| 0.112 | 0.146 | 0.216 | 0.193 | 0.021 | Rwanda |
|
||||||
| 0.111 | 0.146 | 0.208 | 0.184 | 0.165 | 0.083 | Senegal |
|
| 0.111 | 0.146 | 0.208 | 0.184 | 0.020 | Senegal |
|
||||||
| 0.110 | 0.144 | 0.203 | 0.182 | 0.166 | 0.081 | Democratic Republic of the Congo |
|
| 0.110 | 0.144 | 0.203 | 0.182 | 0.019 | Democratic Republic of the Congo |
|
||||||
| 0.107 | 0.139 | 0.202 | 0.175 | 0.160 | 0.078 | Yemen |
|
| 0.107 | 0.139 | 0.202 | 0.175 | 0.020 | Yemen |
|
||||||
| 0.106 | 0.141 | 0.203 | 0.174 | 0.159 | 0.079 | Sierra Leone |
|
| 0.106 | 0.141 | 0.203 | 0.174 | 0.019 | Sierra Leone |
|
||||||
| 0.103 | 0.165 | 0.239 | 0.197 | 0.135 | 0.076 | Kiribati |
|
| 0.103 | 0.165 | 0.239 | 0.197 | 0.023 | Kiribati |
|
||||||
| 0.103 | 0.136 | 0.192 | 0.168 | 0.160 | 0.076 | Mozambique |
|
| 0.103 | 0.136 | 0.192 | 0.168 | 0.019 | Mozambique |
|
||||||
| 0.102 | 0.135 | 0.192 | 0.168 | 0.158 | 0.075 | Somalia |
|
| 0.102 | 0.135 | 0.192 | 0.168 | 0.019 | Somalia |
|
||||||
| 0.102 | 0.139 | 0.202 | 0.168 | 0.152 | 0.075 | Togo |
|
| 0.102 | 0.139 | 0.202 | 0.168 | 0.019 | Togo |
|
||||||
| 0.101 | 0.137 | 0.201 | 0.166 | 0.152 | 0.075 | Congo |
|
| 0.101 | 0.137 | 0.201 | 0.166 | 0.019 | Congo |
|
||||||
| 0.101 | 0.133 | 0.191 | 0.166 | 0.156 | 0.074 | Central African Republic |
|
| 0.101 | 0.133 | 0.191 | 0.166 | 0.019 | Central African Republic |
|
||||||
| 0.100 | 0.134 | 0.194 | 0.166 | 0.154 | 0.074 | Guinea |
|
| 0.100 | 0.134 | 0.194 | 0.166 | 0.019 | Guinea |
|
||||||
| 0.100 | 0.135 | 0.197 | 0.165 | 0.152 | 0.074 | Côte d'Ivoire |
|
| 0.100 | 0.135 | 0.197 | 0.165 | 0.019 | Côte d'Ivoire |
|
||||||
| 0.098 | 0.130 | 0.189 | 0.160 | 0.153 | 0.072 | Cameroon |
|
| 0.098 | 0.130 | 0.189 | 0.160 | 0.018 | Cameroon |
|
||||||
| 0.097 | 0.130 | 0.192 | 0.160 | 0.150 | 0.071 | Guinea-Bissau |
|
| 0.097 | 0.130 | 0.192 | 0.160 | 0.019 | Guinea-Bissau |
|
||||||
| 0.097 | 0.129 | 0.183 | 0.157 | 0.155 | 0.071 | Malawi |
|
| 0.097 | 0.129 | 0.183 | 0.157 | 0.018 | Malawi |
|
||||||
| 0.096 | 0.129 | 0.186 | 0.157 | 0.152 | 0.071 | United Republic of Tanzania |
|
| 0.096 | 0.129 | 0.186 | 0.157 | 0.018 | United Republic of Tanzania |
|
||||||
| 0.096 | 0.128 | 0.184 | 0.156 | 0.151 | 0.070 | Afghanistan |
|
| 0.096 | 0.128 | 0.184 | 0.156 | 0.018 | Afghanistan |
|
||||||
| 0.094 | 0.122 | 0.186 | 0.153 | 0.148 | 0.070 | Kenya |
|
| 0.094 | 0.122 | 0.186 | 0.153 | 0.018 | Kenya |
|
||||||
| 0.094 | 0.130 | 0.190 | 0.154 | 0.145 | 0.068 | Nigeria |
|
| 0.094 | 0.130 | 0.190 | 0.154 | 0.019 | Nigeria |
|
||||||
| 0.092 | 0.118 | 0.179 | 0.149 | 0.149 | 0.069 | Equatorial Guinea |
|
| 0.092 | 0.118 | 0.179 | 0.149 | 0.018 | Equatorial Guinea |
|
||||||
| 0.091 | 0.126 | 0.177 | 0.146 | 0.149 | 0.067 | Gambia |
|
| 0.091 | 0.126 | 0.177 | 0.146 | 0.017 | Gambia |
|
||||||
| 0.091 | 0.116 | 0.170 | 0.150 | 0.152 | 0.067 | Chad |
|
| 0.091 | 0.116 | 0.170 | 0.150 | 0.017 | Chad |
|
||||||
| 0.090 | 0.112 | 0.203 | 0.141 | 0.126 | 0.067 | Qatar |
|
| 0.090 | 0.112 | 0.203 | 0.141 | 0.018 | Qatar |
|
||||||
| 0.088 | 0.121 | 0.172 | 0.146 | 0.147 | 0.064 | Niger |
|
| 0.088 | 0.121 | 0.172 | 0.146 | 0.017 | Niger |
|
||||||
| 0.088 | 0.118 | 0.173 | 0.144 | 0.145 | 0.064 | Burkina Faso |
|
| 0.088 | 0.118 | 0.173 | 0.144 | 0.017 | Burkina Faso |
|
||||||
| 0.088 | 0.109 | 0.169 | 0.144 | 0.146 | 0.064 | Burundi |
|
| 0.088 | 0.109 | 0.169 | 0.144 | 0.017 | Burundi |
|
||||||
| 0.087 | 0.117 | 0.169 | 0.145 | 0.147 | 0.064 | Mali |
|
| 0.087 | 0.117 | 0.169 | 0.145 | 0.017 | Mali |
|
||||||
| 0.085 | 0.111 | 0.164 | 0.139 | 0.145 | 0.063 | Angola |
|
| 0.085 | 0.111 | 0.164 | 0.139 | 0.016 | Angola |
|
||||||
| 0.083 | 0.104 | 0.190 | 0.130 | 0.124 | 0.063 | United Arab Emirates |
|
| 0.083 | 0.104 | 0.190 | 0.130 | 0.016 | United Arab Emirates |
|
||||||
| 0.083 | 0.107 | 0.158 | 0.134 | 0.144 | 0.061 | Zambia |
|
| 0.083 | 0.107 | 0.158 | 0.134 | 0.016 | Zambia |
|
||||||
| 0.074 | 0.099 | 0.147 | 0.121 | 0.137 | 0.054 | Uganda |
|
| 0.074 | 0.099 | 0.147 | 0.121 | 0.015 | Uganda |
|
||||||
| ENE-COV | US_CDC | Verity | Levin | Gudbj | O'Drisc | Region |
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
Note that in addition to countries, there are rows for each continent and for the world.
|
Note that in addition to countries, there are rows for each continent and for the world.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
## Findings
|
## Findings
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
The overall IFR estimates, with the exception of Levin et al. and O’Driscoll et al., are relatively
|
The overall IFR estimates of COVID-19, with the exception of Levin et al., are relatively
|
||||||
consistent with each other, usually within 30-40%. Levin et al. is up to
|
consistent with each other, usually within 30-40%. Levin et al. is often up to
|
||||||
2-fold higher than the others, depending on the country.
|
2-fold higher than the others, depending on the country.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
The country with the oldest population is expected to have the highest overall
|
The country with the oldest population is expected to have the highest overall
|
||||||
IFR: Japan at 1.3-1.6% (excluding Levin et al. and O’Driscoll et al.)
|
IFR: Japan at 1.274-1.605% (excluding Levin et al.)
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
The country with the youngest population is expected to have the lowest overall
|
The country with the youngest population is expected to have the lowest overall
|
||||||
IFR: Uganda at 0.074-0.147%
|
IFR: Uganda at 0.074-0.147%.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
The **IFR of COVID-19 is one order of magnitude (10×) higher than the seasonal flu**
|
||||||
|
for all regions. For example, in the US the average flu IFR is 0.078%, compared to
|
||||||
|
0.669-1.169% for COVID-19.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
The **overall IFR varies dramatically by more than 10-fold** between countries with a young
|
The **overall IFR varies dramatically by more than 10-fold** between countries with a young
|
||||||
population and those with an old population.
|
population and those with an old population.
|
||||||
@@ -326,7 +332,7 @@ In fact, **the young age of the population in Africa is a major factor explainin
|
|||||||
relatively small number of deaths** on this continent. We find (ENE-COVID)
|
relatively small number of deaths** on this continent. We find (ENE-COVID)
|
||||||
IFR=0.127% for Africa, and IFR=0.810% in Europe, a 6-fold difference.
|
IFR=0.127% for Africa, and IFR=0.810% in Europe, a 6-fold difference.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
The overall IFR is, for each world region and the world:
|
The overall IFR of COVID-19 is, for each world region and the world:
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
* 0.810% Europe
|
* 0.810% Europe
|
||||||
* 0.675% Northern America
|
* 0.675% Northern America
|
||||||
|
|||||||
+18
-38
@@ -22,12 +22,15 @@ age_groups = [(0,4), (5,9), (10,14), (15,19), (20,24), (25,29), (30,34), (35,39)
|
|||||||
# age group 20-24 in France: pyramid['France'][(20,24)]
|
# age group 20-24 in France: pyramid['France'][(20,24)]
|
||||||
pyramid = {}
|
pyramid = {}
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
# For a description of cdc_sympt, see the same variable name defined in covid_vs_flu.py
|
||||||
|
cdc_sympt = .575
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
# Various age-stratified IFR estimates
|
# Various age-stratified IFR estimates
|
||||||
ifrs = [
|
ifrs = [
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
# Calculated from Spanish ENE-COVID study
|
# Calculated from Spanish ENE-COVID study
|
||||||
# (see calc_ifr.py)
|
# (see calc_ifr.py)
|
||||||
('ENE-COV', {
|
('ENE-COVID', {
|
||||||
(0,9): 0.003,
|
(0,9): 0.003,
|
||||||
(10,19): 0.004,
|
(10,19): 0.004,
|
||||||
(20,29): 0.015,
|
(20,29): 0.015,
|
||||||
@@ -43,7 +46,7 @@ ifrs = [
|
|||||||
# US CDC estimate as of 10 Sep 2020
|
# US CDC estimate as of 10 Sep 2020
|
||||||
# https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/hcp/planning-scenarios.html
|
# https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/hcp/planning-scenarios.html
|
||||||
# (table 1)
|
# (table 1)
|
||||||
('US_CDC', {
|
('COVID: US CDC', {
|
||||||
(0,19): 0.003,
|
(0,19): 0.003,
|
||||||
(20,49): 0.02,
|
(20,49): 0.02,
|
||||||
(50,69): 0.5,
|
(50,69): 0.5,
|
||||||
@@ -53,7 +56,7 @@ ifrs = [
|
|||||||
# Verity et al.
|
# Verity et al.
|
||||||
# https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(20)30243-7/fulltext
|
# https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(20)30243-7/fulltext
|
||||||
# (table 1)
|
# (table 1)
|
||||||
('Verity', {
|
('COVID: Verity', {
|
||||||
(0,9): 0.00161,
|
(0,9): 0.00161,
|
||||||
(10,19): 0.00695,
|
(10,19): 0.00695,
|
||||||
(20,29): 0.0309,
|
(20,29): 0.0309,
|
||||||
@@ -68,7 +71,7 @@ ifrs = [
|
|||||||
# Levin et al.
|
# Levin et al.
|
||||||
# https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.07.23.20160895v5
|
# https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.07.23.20160895v5
|
||||||
# (table 3)
|
# (table 3)
|
||||||
('Levin', {
|
('COVID: Levin', {
|
||||||
(0,34): 0.004,
|
(0,34): 0.004,
|
||||||
(35,44): 0.06,
|
(35,44): 0.06,
|
||||||
(45,54): 0.2,
|
(45,54): 0.2,
|
||||||
@@ -78,38 +81,15 @@ ifrs = [
|
|||||||
(85,maxage): 22.3,
|
(85,maxage): 22.3,
|
||||||
}),
|
}),
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
# Gudbjartsson et al., Humoral Immune Response to SARS-CoV-2 in Iceland
|
# IFR for seasonal influenza
|
||||||
# https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2026116
|
# US CDC 2019-2020 influenza burden
|
||||||
# Supplementary Appendix 1
|
# https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/2019-2020.html
|
||||||
# https://www.nejm.org/doi/suppl/10.1056/NEJMoa2026116/suppl_file/nejmoa2026116_appendix_1.pdf
|
('Flu: US CDC', {
|
||||||
# (table S7)
|
(0,4): 254/4_291_677 * 100 * cdc_sympt,
|
||||||
('Gudbj', {
|
(5,17): 180/8_214_257 * 100 * cdc_sympt,
|
||||||
(0,70): 0.1,
|
(18,49): 2_669/15_325_708 * 100 * cdc_sympt,
|
||||||
(71,80): 2.4,
|
(50,64): 5_133/8_416_702 * 100 * cdc_sympt,
|
||||||
(81,maxage): 11.2,
|
(65,maxage): 13_673/1_946_161 * 100 * cdc_sympt,
|
||||||
}),
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
# O’Driscoll et al., Age-specific mortality and immunity patterns of SARS-CoV-2 infection in 45 countries
|
|
||||||
# https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.08.24.20180851v1
|
|
||||||
# (table S4)
|
|
||||||
("O'Drisc", {
|
|
||||||
(0,4): 0.002,
|
|
||||||
(5,9): 0.000,
|
|
||||||
(10,14): 0.000,
|
|
||||||
(15,19): 0.002,
|
|
||||||
(20,24): 0.004,
|
|
||||||
(25,29): 0.009,
|
|
||||||
(30,34): 0.017,
|
|
||||||
(35,39): 0.029,
|
|
||||||
(40,44): 0.053,
|
|
||||||
(45,49): 0.086,
|
|
||||||
(50,54): 0.154,
|
|
||||||
(55,59): 0.241,
|
|
||||||
(60,64): 0.359,
|
|
||||||
(65,69): 0.642,
|
|
||||||
(70,74): 1.076,
|
|
||||||
(75,79): 2.276,
|
|
||||||
(80,maxage): 7.274,
|
|
||||||
}),
|
}),
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
]
|
]
|
||||||
@@ -171,7 +151,7 @@ def calc_overall_ifrs():
|
|||||||
def show_overall_ifrs(oifrs):
|
def show_overall_ifrs(oifrs):
|
||||||
def header():
|
def header():
|
||||||
for i in ifrs:
|
for i in ifrs:
|
||||||
print(f'| {i[0]:>7} ', end='')
|
print(f'| {i[0]:>13} ', end='')
|
||||||
print('| Region |')
|
print('| Region |')
|
||||||
# Each entry in the oifrs array is a tuple:
|
# Each entry in the oifrs array is a tuple:
|
||||||
# (<region_name>, <ifr_according_to_1st_estimate>, <ifr_according_to_2nd_estimate>, ...)
|
# (<region_name>, <ifr_according_to_1st_estimate>, <ifr_according_to_2nd_estimate>, ...)
|
||||||
@@ -181,7 +161,7 @@ def show_overall_ifrs(oifrs):
|
|||||||
header()
|
header()
|
||||||
for region in oifrs:
|
for region in oifrs:
|
||||||
for i in region[1:]:
|
for i in region[1:]:
|
||||||
print(f'| {i:7.3f} ', end='')
|
print(f'| {i:13.3f} ', end='')
|
||||||
print(f'| {region[0]} |')
|
print(f'| {region[0]} |')
|
||||||
header()
|
header()
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
|||||||
Reference in New Issue
Block a user