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README: we accurately predicted US IFR

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Marc Bevand
2020-09-27 14:09:50 -07:00
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@@ -21,7 +21,7 @@ healthcare, socioeconomic status, ethnicity, etc.
IFR estimates come from:
1. ENE-COVID Spanish serosurvey (calculated by `calc_ifr.py`, see next section)
1. [US CDC](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/hcp/planning-scenarios.html) (table 1)
1. [US CDC](https://web.archive.org/web/20200911222029/https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/hcp/planning-scenarios.html) (table 1)
1. [Verity et al.: Estimates of the severity of coronavirus disease 2019: a model-based analysis](https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099%2820%2930243-7/fulltext) (table 1)
1. [Levin et al.: Assessing the age specificity of infection fatality rates for COVID-19: systematic review, meta-analysis, and public policy implications](https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.07.23.20160895v5) (table 3)
1. [Gudbjartsson et al.: Humoral Immune Response to SARS-CoV-2 in Iceland](https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2026116),
@@ -253,7 +253,8 @@ Note that in addition to countries, there are rows for each continent and for th
## Findings
The overall IFR estimates, with the exception of Levin et al., are relatively
consistent with each other, usually within 30-40%.
consistent with each other, usually within 30-40%. Levin et al. is up to
2-fold higher than the others, depending on the country.
The country with the oldest population is expected to have the highest overall
IFR: Japan at 1.3-1.6% (excluding Levin et al.)
@@ -268,6 +269,11 @@ In fact, **the young age of the population in Africa is a major factor explainin
relatively small number of deaths** on this continent. We find IFR=0.127% for Africa,
and IFR=0.810% in Europe, a 6-fold difference.
Our code, with the ENE-COVID Spanish serosurvey data from June 2020, accurately
predicted an overall IFR of 0.669% in the United States, which is very close to
[overall US CDC estimate of 0.65%](https://web.archive.org/web/20200712055258/https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/hcp/planning-scenarios.html)
published in July 2020.
# Calculating the age-stratified IFR of COVID-19 from the Spanish ENE-COVID study
The largest serological prevalence survey of COVID-19 was conducted by Spain