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README: we accurately predicted US IFR

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Marc Bevand
2020-09-27 14:09:50 -07:00
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@@ -21,7 +21,7 @@ healthcare, socioeconomic status, ethnicity, etc.
IFR estimates come from: IFR estimates come from:
1. ENE-COVID Spanish serosurvey (calculated by `calc_ifr.py`, see next section) 1. ENE-COVID Spanish serosurvey (calculated by `calc_ifr.py`, see next section)
1. [US CDC](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/hcp/planning-scenarios.html) (table 1) 1. [US CDC](https://web.archive.org/web/20200911222029/https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/hcp/planning-scenarios.html) (table 1)
1. [Verity et al.: Estimates of the severity of coronavirus disease 2019: a model-based analysis](https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099%2820%2930243-7/fulltext) (table 1) 1. [Verity et al.: Estimates of the severity of coronavirus disease 2019: a model-based analysis](https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099%2820%2930243-7/fulltext) (table 1)
1. [Levin et al.: Assessing the age specificity of infection fatality rates for COVID-19: systematic review, meta-analysis, and public policy implications](https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.07.23.20160895v5) (table 3) 1. [Levin et al.: Assessing the age specificity of infection fatality rates for COVID-19: systematic review, meta-analysis, and public policy implications](https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.07.23.20160895v5) (table 3)
1. [Gudbjartsson et al.: Humoral Immune Response to SARS-CoV-2 in Iceland](https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2026116), 1. [Gudbjartsson et al.: Humoral Immune Response to SARS-CoV-2 in Iceland](https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2026116),
@@ -253,7 +253,8 @@ Note that in addition to countries, there are rows for each continent and for th
## Findings ## Findings
The overall IFR estimates, with the exception of Levin et al., are relatively The overall IFR estimates, with the exception of Levin et al., are relatively
consistent with each other, usually within 30-40%. consistent with each other, usually within 30-40%. Levin et al. is up to
2-fold higher than the others, depending on the country.
The country with the oldest population is expected to have the highest overall The country with the oldest population is expected to have the highest overall
IFR: Japan at 1.3-1.6% (excluding Levin et al.) IFR: Japan at 1.3-1.6% (excluding Levin et al.)
@@ -268,6 +269,11 @@ In fact, **the young age of the population in Africa is a major factor explainin
relatively small number of deaths** on this continent. We find IFR=0.127% for Africa, relatively small number of deaths** on this continent. We find IFR=0.127% for Africa,
and IFR=0.810% in Europe, a 6-fold difference. and IFR=0.810% in Europe, a 6-fold difference.
Our code, with the ENE-COVID Spanish serosurvey data from June 2020, accurately
predicted an overall IFR of 0.669% in the United States, which is very close to
[overall US CDC estimate of 0.65%](https://web.archive.org/web/20200712055258/https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/hcp/planning-scenarios.html)
published in July 2020.
# Calculating the age-stratified IFR of COVID-19 from the Spanish ENE-COVID study # Calculating the age-stratified IFR of COVID-19 from the Spanish ENE-COVID study
The largest serological prevalence survey of COVID-19 was conducted by Spain The largest serological prevalence survey of COVID-19 was conducted by Spain