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add O’Driscoll age-stratified IFR

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Marc Bevand
2020-09-27 17:56:13 -07:00
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README.md
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@@ -26,6 +26,7 @@ IFR estimates come from:
1. [Levin et al.: Assessing the age specificity of infection fatality rates for COVID-19: systematic review, meta-analysis, and public policy implications](https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.07.23.20160895v5) (table 3)
1. [Gudbjartsson et al.: Humoral Immune Response to SARS-CoV-2 in Iceland](https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2026116),
[Supplementary Appendix 1](https://www.nejm.org/doi/suppl/10.1056/NEJMoa2026116/suppl_file/nejmoa2026116_appendix_1.pdf) (table S7)
1. [O’Driscoll et al.: Age-specific mortality and immunity patterns of SARS-CoV-2 infection in 45 countries](https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.08.24.20180851v1) (table S4)
Data for the population pyramids comes from the
[United Nations](https://population.un.org/wpp/Download/Standard/Population/),
@@ -37,227 +38,228 @@ specifically the first sheet of [Population by Age Groups - Both Sexes](https://
The overall expected IFR percentages are summarized in this table (sorted by
IFR according to ENE-COV column):
| ENE-COV | US_CDC | Verity | Levin | Gudbj | Region |
| ------- | ------ | ------ | ----- | ------- | ------ |
| 1.274 | 1.311 | 1.605 | 2.247 | 1.283 | Japan |
| 1.065 | 1.092 | 1.382 | 1.847 | 1.068 | Italy |
| 1.041 | 1.043 | 1.339 | 1.806 | 1.057 | Greece |
| 0.993 | 1.012 | 1.305 | 1.702 | 0.994 | Germany |
| 0.984 | 1.045 | 1.320 | 1.726 | 0.986 | Portugal |
| 0.931 | 0.985 | 1.270 | 1.648 | 0.918 | Martinique |
| 0.919 | 0.933 | 1.221 | 1.658 | 0.918 | Lithuania |
| 0.916 | 0.942 | 1.207 | 1.648 | 0.921 | Spain |
| 0.914 | 0.941 | 1.201 | 1.606 | 0.913 | France |
| 0.899 | 1.008 | 1.248 | 1.556 | 0.883 | Finland |
| 0.881 | 0.919 | 1.192 | 1.624 | 0.870 | Latvia |
| 0.875 | 0.957 | 1.205 | 1.528 | 0.857 | Puerto Rico |
| 0.868 | 0.892 | 1.171 | 1.516 | 0.870 | Estonia |
| 0.865 | 0.932 | 1.209 | 1.487 | 0.855 | Croatia |
| 0.855 | 0.965 | 1.205 | 1.471 | 0.835 | Malta |
| 0.846 | 0.881 | 1.137 | 1.478 | 0.847 | Belgium |
| 0.843 | 0.905 | 1.181 | 1.489 | 0.829 | Slovenia |
| 0.840 | 0.943 | 1.154 | 1.471 | 0.838 | Sweden |
| 0.836 | 0.910 | 1.149 | 1.462 | 0.830 | Austria |
| 0.825 | 0.897 | 1.132 | 1.447 | 0.819 | Switzerland |
| 0.810 | 0.861 | 1.117 | 1.396 | 0.802 | Europe |
| 0.802 | 0.909 | 1.141 | 1.394 | 0.785 | Netherlands |
| 0.801 | 0.949 | 1.181 | 1.377 | 0.779 | Bulgaria |
| 0.798 | 0.864 | 1.113 | 1.399 | 0.779 | Guadeloupe |
| 0.797 | 0.935 | 1.136 | 1.370 | 0.782 | Denmark |
| 0.794 | 0.868 | 1.089 | 1.384 | 0.794 | United Kingdom |
| 0.791 | 0.811 | 1.102 | 1.367 | 0.761 | China, Hong Kong SAR |
| 0.759 | 0.830 | 1.090 | 1.285 | 0.745 | Romania |
| 0.753 | 0.854 | 1.101 | 1.323 | 0.732 | Hungary |
| 0.745 | 0.800 | 1.064 | 1.285 | 0.724 | Poland |
| 0.739 | 0.828 | 1.059 | 1.315 | 0.737 | Channel Islands |
| 0.738 | 0.878 | 1.092 | 1.302 | 0.717 | Czechia |
| 0.734 | 0.810 | 1.047 | 1.288 | 0.714 | Canada |
| 0.719 | 0.756 | 0.998 | 1.259 | 0.705 | Barbados |
| 0.713 | 0.808 | 1.038 | 1.210 | 0.694 | Curaçao |
| 0.709 | 0.802 | 1.007 | 1.239 | 0.699 | Norway |
| 0.680 | 0.800 | 1.029 | 1.160 | 0.659 | Serbia |
| 0.676 | 0.694 | 0.904 | 1.193 | 0.686 | Uruguay |
| 0.675 | 0.745 | 0.967 | 1.181 | 0.660 | Northern America |
| 0.671 | 0.736 | 0.944 | 1.174 | 0.670 | Australia |
| 0.671 | 0.733 | 0.983 | 1.103 | 0.651 | Ukraine |
| 0.669 | 0.738 | 0.958 | 1.169 | 0.654 | United States of America |
| 0.659 | 0.757 | 1.011 | 1.088 | 0.620 | Bosnia and Herzegovina |
| 0.654 | 0.742 | 0.945 | 1.137 | 0.645 | New Zealand |
| 0.644 | 0.735 | 0.941 | 1.131 | 0.630 | Cuba |
| 0.641 | 0.877 | 1.059 | 1.152 | 0.608 | United States Virgin Islands |
| 0.633 | 0.725 | 0.963 | 1.090 | 0.606 | Republic of Korea |
| 0.628 | 0.686 | 0.938 | 1.100 | 0.599 | China, Taiwan Province of China |
| 0.624 | 0.663 | 0.916 | 1.030 | 0.606 | Russian Federation |
| 0.624 | 0.657 | 0.921 | 1.082 | 0.606 | Belarus |
| 0.615 | 0.668 | 0.881 | 1.078 | 0.616 | Luxembourg |
| 0.607 | 0.670 | 0.896 | 1.002 | 0.598 | Georgia |
| 0.605 | 0.683 | 0.888 | 1.061 | 0.599 | Iceland |
| 0.604 | 0.709 | 0.935 | 1.059 | 0.580 | Slovakia |
| 0.582 | 0.667 | 0.891 | 0.989 | 0.567 | Montenegro |
| 0.563 | 0.653 | 0.838 | 0.972 | 0.559 | Ireland |
| 0.561 | 0.649 | 0.839 | 0.957 | 0.559 | Cyprus |
| 0.548 | 0.659 | 0.857 | 0.941 | 0.533 | Albania |
| 0.531 | 0.652 | 0.874 | 0.920 | 0.508 | Aruba |
| 0.518 | 0.580 | 0.754 | 0.902 | 0.526 | Oceania |
| 0.510 | 0.588 | 0.795 | 0.881 | 0.491 | Thailand |
| 0.500 | 0.569 | 0.763 | 0.880 | 0.493 | Réunion |
| 0.499 | 0.545 | 0.710 | 0.872 | 0.516 | Israel |
| 0.497 | 0.522 | 0.748 | 0.794 | 0.491 | Armenia |
| 0.497 | 0.616 | 0.816 | 0.851 | 0.474 | North Macedonia |
| 0.493 | 0.550 | 0.736 | 0.861 | 0.492 | Chile |
| 0.479 | 0.550 | 0.796 | 0.829 | 0.433 | Singapore |
| 0.454 | 0.515 | 0.671 | 0.790 | 0.471 | Argentina |
| 0.449 | 0.514 | 0.738 | 0.770 | 0.412 | China, Macao SAR |
| 0.447 | 0.544 | 0.732 | 0.772 | 0.425 | Mauritius |
| 0.435 | 0.501 | 0.721 | 0.766 | 0.413 | Republic of Moldova |
| 0.415 | 0.511 | 0.681 | 0.717 | 0.402 | Trinidad and Tobago |
| 0.413 | 0.475 | 0.638 | 0.712 | 0.417 | Costa Rica |
| 0.413 | 0.468 | 0.626 | 0.704 | 0.413 | Saint Lucia |
| 0.409 | 0.507 | 0.695 | 0.707 | 0.385 | China |
| 0.394 | 0.497 | 0.648 | 0.712 | 0.409 | Antigua and Barbuda |
| 0.387 | 0.495 | 0.651 | 0.668 | 0.377 | Sri Lanka |
| 0.377 | 0.487 | 0.635 | 0.622 | 0.373 | Dem. People's Republic of Korea |
| 0.376 | 0.437 | 0.594 | 0.645 | 0.382 | Brazil |
| 0.365 | 0.464 | 0.611 | 0.618 | 0.373 | Guam |
| 0.364 | 0.425 | 0.569 | 0.627 | 0.381 | Jamaica |
| 0.361 | 0.454 | 0.605 | 0.663 | 0.375 | Saint Vincent and the Grenadines |
| 0.359 | 0.399 | 0.540 | 0.623 | 0.380 | Panama |
| **0.358** | **0.418** | **0.566** | **0.615** | **0.370** | **WORLD** |
| 0.356 | 0.410 | 0.555 | 0.614 | 0.371 | Latin America and the Caribbean |
| 0.355 | 0.412 | 0.560 | 0.613 | 0.367 | Colombia |
| 0.354 | 0.438 | 0.595 | 0.642 | 0.368 | Grenada |
| 0.347 | 0.399 | 0.528 | 0.595 | 0.377 | El Salvador |
| 0.343 | 0.363 | 0.528 | 0.602 | 0.355 | Viet Nam |
| 0.342 | 0.408 | 0.552 | 0.588 | 0.356 | Turkey |
| 0.339 | 0.397 | 0.537 | 0.583 | 0.358 | Peru |
| 0.336 | 0.394 | 0.553 | 0.579 | 0.344 | Tunisia |
| 0.327 | 0.432 | 0.573 | 0.547 | 0.328 | New Caledonia |
| 0.325 | 0.394 | 0.541 | 0.559 | 0.331 | Asia |
| 0.310 | 0.350 | 0.463 | 0.535 | 0.346 | Bolivia (Plurinational State of) |
| 0.309 | 0.348 | 0.480 | 0.532 | 0.333 | Dominican Republic |
| 0.307 | 0.348 | 0.503 | 0.505 | 0.319 | Kazakhstan |
| 0.306 | 0.352 | 0.485 | 0.532 | 0.327 | Mexico |
| 0.305 | 0.365 | 0.502 | 0.526 | 0.317 | Venezuela (Bolivarian Republic of) |
| 0.303 | 0.347 | 0.474 | 0.525 | 0.329 | Ecuador |
| 0.295 | 0.346 | 0.482 | 0.501 | 0.317 | Lebanon |
| 0.293 | 0.400 | 0.542 | 0.477 | 0.284 | Seychelles |
| 0.287 | 0.384 | 0.527 | 0.513 | 0.286 | French Polynesia |
| 0.282 | 0.326 | 0.456 | 0.456 | 0.298 | Guyana |
| 0.280 | 0.335 | 0.463 | 0.469 | 0.298 | Suriname |
| 0.273 | 0.313 | 0.474 | 0.452 | 0.279 | Azerbaijan |
| 0.272 | 0.337 | 0.474 | 0.462 | 0.284 | Morocco |
| 0.269 | 0.358 | 0.495 | 0.460 | 0.272 | Bahamas |
| 0.263 | 0.325 | 0.453 | 0.442 | 0.279 | Malaysia |
| 0.260 | 0.305 | 0.426 | 0.446 | 0.289 | Algeria |
| 0.257 | 0.307 | 0.418 | 0.436 | 0.287 | Paraguay |
| 0.251 | 0.297 | 0.403 | 0.423 | 0.288 | Bhutan |
| 0.246 | 0.301 | 0.431 | 0.418 | 0.263 | Iran (Islamic Republic of) |
| 0.234 | 0.293 | 0.414 | 0.398 | 0.253 | India |
| 0.229 | 0.293 | 0.416 | 0.387 | 0.244 | Indonesia |
| 0.228 | 0.259 | 0.373 | 0.393 | 0.262 | Nicaragua |
| 0.221 | 0.269 | 0.368 | 0.374 | 0.255 | Bangladesh |
| 0.221 | 0.232 | 0.349 | 0.374 | 0.260 | Cabo Verde |
| 0.217 | 0.284 | 0.375 | 0.310 | 0.247 | Tonga |
| 0.215 | 0.277 | 0.401 | 0.366 | 0.228 | Myanmar |
| 0.208 | 0.235 | 0.334 | 0.351 | 0.244 | Belize |
| 0.206 | 0.235 | 0.331 | 0.353 | 0.249 | Honduras |
| 0.204 | 0.233 | 0.323 | 0.349 | 0.253 | Guatemala |
| 0.204 | 0.255 | 0.360 | 0.342 | 0.232 | Philippines |
| 0.202 | 0.267 | 0.360 | 0.344 | 0.232 | Nepal |
| 0.197 | 0.249 | 0.381 | 0.331 | 0.210 | Brunei Darussalam |
| 0.194 | 0.237 | 0.331 | 0.330 | 0.233 | Haiti |
| 0.193 | 0.251 | 0.355 | 0.325 | 0.220 | South Africa |
| 0.193 | 0.222 | 0.339 | 0.316 | 0.220 | Turkmenistan |
| 0.192 | 0.247 | 0.343 | 0.321 | 0.224 | Egypt |
| 0.192 | 0.262 | 0.376 | 0.318 | 0.206 | Fiji |
| 0.188 | 0.220 | 0.335 | 0.310 | 0.217 | Kyrgyzstan |
| 0.188 | 0.245 | 0.353 | 0.344 | 0.216 | French Guiana |
| 0.187 | 0.219 | 0.340 | 0.317 | 0.212 | Uzbekistan |
| 0.185 | 0.224 | 0.323 | 0.317 | 0.222 | Syrian Arab Republic |
| 0.182 | 0.226 | 0.324 | 0.307 | 0.216 | Libya |
| 0.181 | 0.229 | 0.319 | 0.308 | 0.221 | Lesotho |
| 0.173 | 0.216 | 0.320 | 0.294 | 0.201 | Mongolia |
| 0.170 | 0.225 | 0.317 | 0.287 | 0.205 | Djibouti |
| 0.170 | 0.238 | 0.325 | 0.271 | 0.197 | Samoa |
| 0.168 | 0.221 | 0.314 | 0.288 | 0.199 | Cambodia |
| 0.164 | 0.210 | 0.292 | 0.274 | 0.206 | Pakistan |
| 0.158 | 0.204 | 0.273 | 0.268 | 0.208 | Eritrea |
| 0.157 | 0.183 | 0.277 | 0.252 | 0.203 | Maldives |
| 0.157 | 0.194 | 0.268 | 0.281 | 0.212 | Mayotte |
| 0.156 | 0.199 | 0.279 | 0.260 | 0.199 | Jordan |
| 0.155 | 0.203 | 0.289 | 0.263 | 0.193 | Botswana |
| 0.154 | 0.199 | 0.287 | 0.257 | 0.191 | Lao People's Democratic Republic |
| 0.152 | 0.209 | 0.279 | 0.253 | 0.197 | Timor-Leste |
| 0.146 | 0.180 | 0.282 | 0.248 | 0.177 | Saudi Arabia |
| 0.145 | 0.187 | 0.254 | 0.239 | 0.199 | Eswatini |
| 0.139 | 0.173 | 0.248 | 0.234 | 0.188 | Namibia |
| 0.135 | 0.176 | 0.302 | 0.222 | 0.145 | Kuwait |
| 0.134 | 0.173 | 0.244 | 0.224 | 0.183 | Sudan |
| 0.133 | 0.173 | 0.245 | 0.221 | 0.182 | Gabon |
| 0.130 | 0.167 | 0.231 | 0.216 | 0.183 | Ethiopia |
| 0.130 | 0.174 | 0.242 | 0.224 | 0.179 | Solomon Islands |
| 0.128 | 0.158 | 0.245 | 0.207 | 0.169 | Tajikistan |
| 0.127 | 0.165 | 0.236 | 0.212 | 0.176 | Africa |
| 0.125 | 0.157 | 0.229 | 0.212 | 0.176 | Iraq |
| 0.125 | 0.150 | 0.253 | 0.199 | 0.156 | Bahrain |
| 0.124 | 0.163 | 0.225 | 0.204 | 0.176 | South Sudan |
| 0.123 | 0.168 | 0.244 | 0.196 | 0.163 | Vanuatu |
| 0.122 | 0.165 | 0.247 | 0.204 | 0.160 | Papua New Guinea |
| 0.121 | 0.157 | 0.226 | 0.203 | 0.171 | Liberia |
| 0.121 | 0.157 | 0.222 | 0.203 | 0.173 | Benin |
| 0.120 | 0.155 | 0.224 | 0.199 | 0.170 | Mauritania |
| 0.120 | 0.157 | 0.222 | 0.196 | 0.171 | State of Palestine |
| 0.119 | 0.150 | 0.219 | 0.173 | 0.170 | Sao Tome and Principe |
| 0.118 | 0.178 | 0.278 | 0.228 | 0.136 | Micronesia (Fed. States of) |
| 0.118 | 0.138 | 0.222 | 0.195 | 0.165 | Oman |
| 0.118 | 0.160 | 0.260 | 0.195 | 0.143 | Western Sahara |
| 0.116 | 0.157 | 0.230 | 0.190 | 0.159 | Ghana |
| 0.116 | 0.146 | 0.216 | 0.193 | 0.166 | Madagascar |
| 0.113 | 0.149 | 0.220 | 0.193 | 0.162 | Comoros |
| 0.112 | 0.142 | 0.205 | 0.188 | 0.169 | Zimbabwe |
| 0.112 | 0.146 | 0.216 | 0.193 | 0.161 | Rwanda |
| 0.111 | 0.146 | 0.208 | 0.184 | 0.165 | Senegal |
| 0.110 | 0.144 | 0.203 | 0.182 | 0.166 | Democratic Republic of the Congo |
| 0.107 | 0.139 | 0.202 | 0.175 | 0.160 | Yemen |
| 0.106 | 0.141 | 0.203 | 0.174 | 0.159 | Sierra Leone |
| 0.103 | 0.165 | 0.239 | 0.197 | 0.135 | Kiribati |
| 0.103 | 0.136 | 0.192 | 0.168 | 0.160 | Mozambique |
| 0.102 | 0.135 | 0.192 | 0.168 | 0.158 | Somalia |
| 0.102 | 0.139 | 0.202 | 0.168 | 0.152 | Togo |
| 0.101 | 0.137 | 0.201 | 0.166 | 0.152 | Congo |
| 0.101 | 0.133 | 0.191 | 0.166 | 0.156 | Central African Republic |
| 0.100 | 0.134 | 0.194 | 0.166 | 0.154 | Guinea |
| 0.100 | 0.135 | 0.197 | 0.165 | 0.152 | Côte d'Ivoire |
| 0.098 | 0.130 | 0.189 | 0.160 | 0.153 | Cameroon |
| 0.097 | 0.130 | 0.192 | 0.160 | 0.150 | Guinea-Bissau |
| 0.097 | 0.129 | 0.183 | 0.157 | 0.155 | Malawi |
| 0.096 | 0.129 | 0.186 | 0.157 | 0.152 | United Republic of Tanzania |
| 0.096 | 0.128 | 0.184 | 0.156 | 0.151 | Afghanistan |
| 0.094 | 0.122 | 0.186 | 0.153 | 0.148 | Kenya |
| 0.094 | 0.130 | 0.190 | 0.154 | 0.145 | Nigeria |
| 0.092 | 0.118 | 0.179 | 0.149 | 0.149 | Equatorial Guinea |
| 0.091 | 0.126 | 0.177 | 0.146 | 0.149 | Gambia |
| 0.091 | 0.116 | 0.170 | 0.150 | 0.152 | Chad |
| 0.090 | 0.112 | 0.203 | 0.141 | 0.126 | Qatar |
| 0.088 | 0.121 | 0.172 | 0.146 | 0.147 | Niger |
| 0.088 | 0.118 | 0.173 | 0.144 | 0.145 | Burkina Faso |
| 0.088 | 0.109 | 0.169 | 0.144 | 0.146 | Burundi |
| 0.087 | 0.117 | 0.169 | 0.145 | 0.147 | Mali |
| 0.085 | 0.111 | 0.164 | 0.139 | 0.145 | Angola |
| 0.083 | 0.104 | 0.190 | 0.130 | 0.124 | United Arab Emirates |
| 0.083 | 0.107 | 0.158 | 0.134 | 0.144 | Zambia |
| 0.074 | 0.099 | 0.147 | 0.121 | 0.137 | Uganda |
| ENE-COV | US_CDC | Verity | Levin | Gudbj | O'Drisc | Region |
| ------- | ------- | ------- | ------- | ------- | ------- | ------ |
| 1.274 | 1.311 | 1.605 | 2.247 | 1.283 | 0.961 | Japan |
| 1.065 | 1.092 | 1.382 | 1.847 | 1.068 | 0.811 | Italy |
| 1.041 | 1.043 | 1.339 | 1.806 | 1.057 | 0.796 | Greece |
| 0.993 | 1.012 | 1.305 | 1.702 | 0.994 | 0.764 | Germany |
| 0.984 | 1.045 | 1.320 | 1.726 | 0.986 | 0.753 | Portugal |
| 0.931 | 0.985 | 1.270 | 1.648 | 0.918 | 0.704 | Martinique |
| 0.919 | 0.933 | 1.221 | 1.658 | 0.918 | 0.706 | Lithuania |
| 0.916 | 0.942 | 1.207 | 1.648 | 0.921 | 0.694 | Spain |
| 0.914 | 0.941 | 1.201 | 1.606 | 0.913 | 0.682 | France |
| 0.899 | 1.008 | 1.248 | 1.556 | 0.883 | 0.671 | Finland |
| 0.881 | 0.919 | 1.192 | 1.624 | 0.870 | 0.672 | Latvia |
| 0.875 | 0.957 | 1.205 | 1.528 | 0.857 | 0.655 | Puerto Rico |
| 0.868 | 0.892 | 1.171 | 1.516 | 0.870 | 0.672 | Estonia |
| 0.865 | 0.932 | 1.209 | 1.487 | 0.855 | 0.665 | Croatia |
| 0.855 | 0.965 | 1.205 | 1.471 | 0.835 | 0.637 | Malta |
| 0.846 | 0.881 | 1.137 | 1.478 | 0.847 | 0.639 | Belgium |
| 0.843 | 0.905 | 1.181 | 1.489 | 0.829 | 0.645 | Slovenia |
| 0.840 | 0.943 | 1.154 | 1.471 | 0.838 | 0.632 | Sweden |
| 0.836 | 0.910 | 1.149 | 1.462 | 0.830 | 0.638 | Austria |
| 0.825 | 0.897 | 1.132 | 1.447 | 0.819 | 0.624 | Switzerland |
| 0.810 | 0.861 | 1.117 | 1.396 | 0.802 | 0.615 | Europe |
| 0.802 | 0.909 | 1.141 | 1.394 | 0.785 | 0.603 | Netherlands |
| 0.801 | 0.949 | 1.181 | 1.377 | 0.779 | 0.608 | Bulgaria |
| 0.798 | 0.864 | 1.113 | 1.399 | 0.779 | 0.600 | Guadeloupe |
| 0.797 | 0.935 | 1.136 | 1.370 | 0.782 | 0.595 | Denmark |
| 0.794 | 0.868 | 1.089 | 1.384 | 0.794 | 0.598 | United Kingdom |
| 0.791 | 0.811 | 1.102 | 1.367 | 0.761 | 0.588 | China, Hong Kong SAR |
| 0.759 | 0.830 | 1.090 | 1.285 | 0.745 | 0.578 | Romania |
| 0.753 | 0.854 | 1.101 | 1.323 | 0.732 | 0.573 | Hungary |
| 0.745 | 0.800 | 1.064 | 1.285 | 0.724 | 0.557 | Poland |
| 0.739 | 0.828 | 1.059 | 1.315 | 0.737 | 0.565 | Channel Islands |
| 0.738 | 0.878 | 1.092 | 1.302 | 0.717 | 0.555 | Czechia |
| 0.734 | 0.810 | 1.047 | 1.288 | 0.714 | 0.548 | Canada |
| 0.719 | 0.756 | 0.998 | 1.259 | 0.705 | 0.534 | Barbados |
| 0.713 | 0.808 | 1.038 | 1.210 | 0.694 | 0.538 | Curaçao |
| 0.709 | 0.802 | 1.007 | 1.239 | 0.699 | 0.528 | Norway |
| 0.680 | 0.800 | 1.029 | 1.160 | 0.659 | 0.515 | Serbia |
| 0.676 | 0.694 | 0.904 | 1.193 | 0.686 | 0.505 | Uruguay |
| 0.675 | 0.745 | 0.967 | 1.181 | 0.660 | 0.503 | Northern America |
| 0.671 | 0.736 | 0.944 | 1.174 | 0.670 | 0.503 | Australia |
| 0.671 | 0.733 | 0.983 | 1.103 | 0.651 | 0.513 | Ukraine |
| 0.669 | 0.738 | 0.958 | 1.169 | 0.654 | 0.497 | United States of America |
| 0.659 | 0.757 | 1.011 | 1.088 | 0.620 | 0.503 | Bosnia and Herzegovina |
| 0.654 | 0.742 | 0.945 | 1.137 | 0.645 | 0.490 | New Zealand |
| 0.644 | 0.735 | 0.941 | 1.131 | 0.630 | 0.489 | Cuba |
| 0.641 | 0.877 | 1.059 | 1.152 | 0.608 | 0.491 | United States Virgin Islands |
| 0.633 | 0.725 | 0.963 | 1.090 | 0.606 | 0.483 | Republic of Korea |
| 0.628 | 0.686 | 0.938 | 1.100 | 0.599 | 0.472 | China, Taiwan Province of China |
| 0.624 | 0.663 | 0.916 | 1.030 | 0.606 | 0.473 | Russian Federation |
| 0.624 | 0.657 | 0.921 | 1.082 | 0.606 | 0.483 | Belarus |
| 0.615 | 0.668 | 0.881 | 1.078 | 0.616 | 0.467 | Luxembourg |
| 0.607 | 0.670 | 0.896 | 1.002 | 0.598 | 0.464 | Georgia |
| 0.605 | 0.683 | 0.888 | 1.061 | 0.599 | 0.453 | Iceland |
| 0.604 | 0.709 | 0.935 | 1.059 | 0.580 | 0.457 | Slovakia |
| 0.582 | 0.667 | 0.891 | 0.989 | 0.567 | 0.444 | Montenegro |
| 0.563 | 0.653 | 0.838 | 0.972 | 0.559 | 0.424 | Ireland |
| 0.561 | 0.649 | 0.839 | 0.957 | 0.559 | 0.426 | Cyprus |
| 0.548 | 0.659 | 0.857 | 0.941 | 0.533 | 0.418 | Albania |
| 0.531 | 0.652 | 0.874 | 0.920 | 0.508 | 0.412 | Aruba |
| 0.518 | 0.580 | 0.754 | 0.902 | 0.526 | 0.388 | Oceania |
| 0.510 | 0.588 | 0.795 | 0.881 | 0.491 | 0.385 | Thailand |
| 0.500 | 0.569 | 0.763 | 0.880 | 0.493 | 0.377 | Réunion |
| 0.499 | 0.545 | 0.710 | 0.872 | 0.516 | 0.371 | Israel |
| 0.497 | 0.522 | 0.748 | 0.794 | 0.491 | 0.377 | Armenia |
| 0.497 | 0.616 | 0.816 | 0.851 | 0.474 | 0.378 | North Macedonia |
| 0.493 | 0.550 | 0.736 | 0.861 | 0.492 | 0.370 | Chile |
| 0.479 | 0.550 | 0.796 | 0.829 | 0.433 | 0.356 | Singapore |
| 0.454 | 0.515 | 0.671 | 0.790 | 0.471 | 0.343 | Argentina |
| 0.449 | 0.514 | 0.738 | 0.770 | 0.412 | 0.328 | China, Macao SAR |
| 0.447 | 0.544 | 0.732 | 0.772 | 0.425 | 0.331 | Mauritius |
| 0.435 | 0.501 | 0.721 | 0.766 | 0.413 | 0.332 | Republic of Moldova |
| 0.415 | 0.511 | 0.681 | 0.717 | 0.402 | 0.310 | Trinidad and Tobago |
| 0.413 | 0.475 | 0.638 | 0.712 | 0.417 | 0.309 | Costa Rica |
| 0.413 | 0.468 | 0.626 | 0.704 | 0.413 | 0.304 | Saint Lucia |
| 0.409 | 0.507 | 0.695 | 0.707 | 0.385 | 0.308 | China |
| 0.394 | 0.497 | 0.648 | 0.712 | 0.409 | 0.303 | Antigua and Barbuda |
| 0.387 | 0.495 | 0.651 | 0.668 | 0.377 | 0.286 | Sri Lanka |
| 0.377 | 0.487 | 0.635 | 0.622 | 0.373 | 0.284 | Dem. People's Republic of Korea |
| 0.376 | 0.437 | 0.594 | 0.645 | 0.382 | 0.282 | Brazil |
| 0.365 | 0.464 | 0.611 | 0.618 | 0.373 | 0.279 | Guam |
| 0.364 | 0.425 | 0.569 | 0.627 | 0.381 | 0.275 | Jamaica |
| 0.361 | 0.454 | 0.605 | 0.663 | 0.375 | 0.279 | Saint Vincent and the Grenadines |
| 0.359 | 0.399 | 0.540 | 0.623 | 0.380 | 0.269 | Panama |
| 0.358 | 0.418 | 0.566 | 0.615 | 0.370 | 0.269 | WORLD |
| 0.356 | 0.410 | 0.555 | 0.614 | 0.371 | 0.267 | Latin America and the Caribbean |
| 0.355 | 0.412 | 0.560 | 0.613 | 0.367 | 0.267 | Colombia |
| 0.354 | 0.438 | 0.595 | 0.642 | 0.368 | 0.271 | Grenada |
| 0.347 | 0.399 | 0.528 | 0.595 | 0.377 | 0.265 | El Salvador |
| 0.343 | 0.363 | 0.528 | 0.602 | 0.355 | 0.257 | Viet Nam |
| 0.342 | 0.408 | 0.552 | 0.588 | 0.356 | 0.260 | Turkey |
| 0.339 | 0.397 | 0.537 | 0.583 | 0.358 | 0.258 | Peru |
| 0.336 | 0.394 | 0.553 | 0.579 | 0.344 | 0.256 | Tunisia |
| 0.327 | 0.432 | 0.573 | 0.547 | 0.328 | 0.249 | New Caledonia |
| 0.325 | 0.394 | 0.541 | 0.559 | 0.331 | 0.245 | Asia |
| 0.310 | 0.350 | 0.463 | 0.535 | 0.346 | 0.233 | Bolivia (Plurinational State of) |
| 0.309 | 0.348 | 0.480 | 0.532 | 0.333 | 0.232 | Dominican Republic |
| 0.307 | 0.348 | 0.503 | 0.505 | 0.319 | 0.236 | Kazakhstan |
| 0.306 | 0.352 | 0.485 | 0.532 | 0.327 | 0.230 | Mexico |
| 0.305 | 0.365 | 0.502 | 0.526 | 0.317 | 0.228 | Venezuela (Bolivarian Republic of) |
| 0.303 | 0.347 | 0.474 | 0.525 | 0.329 | 0.228 | Ecuador |
| 0.295 | 0.346 | 0.482 | 0.501 | 0.317 | 0.225 | Lebanon |
| 0.293 | 0.400 | 0.542 | 0.477 | 0.284 | 0.225 | Seychelles |
| 0.287 | 0.384 | 0.527 | 0.513 | 0.286 | 0.220 | French Polynesia |
| 0.282 | 0.326 | 0.456 | 0.456 | 0.298 | 0.208 | Guyana |
| 0.280 | 0.335 | 0.463 | 0.469 | 0.298 | 0.211 | Suriname |
| 0.273 | 0.313 | 0.474 | 0.452 | 0.279 | 0.208 | Azerbaijan |
| 0.272 | 0.337 | 0.474 | 0.462 | 0.284 | 0.207 | Morocco |
| 0.269 | 0.358 | 0.495 | 0.460 | 0.272 | 0.206 | Bahamas |
| 0.263 | 0.325 | 0.453 | 0.442 | 0.279 | 0.196 | Malaysia |
| 0.260 | 0.305 | 0.426 | 0.446 | 0.289 | 0.198 | Algeria |
| 0.257 | 0.307 | 0.418 | 0.436 | 0.287 | 0.193 | Paraguay |
| 0.251 | 0.297 | 0.403 | 0.423 | 0.288 | 0.190 | Bhutan |
| 0.246 | 0.301 | 0.431 | 0.418 | 0.263 | 0.186 | Iran (Islamic Republic of) |
| 0.234 | 0.293 | 0.414 | 0.398 | 0.253 | 0.176 | India |
| 0.229 | 0.293 | 0.416 | 0.387 | 0.244 | 0.172 | Indonesia |
| 0.228 | 0.259 | 0.373 | 0.393 | 0.262 | 0.173 | Nicaragua |
| 0.221 | 0.269 | 0.368 | 0.374 | 0.255 | 0.167 | Bangladesh |
| 0.221 | 0.232 | 0.349 | 0.374 | 0.260 | 0.170 | Cabo Verde |
| 0.217 | 0.284 | 0.375 | 0.310 | 0.247 | 0.163 | Tonga |
| 0.215 | 0.277 | 0.401 | 0.366 | 0.228 | 0.161 | Myanmar |
| 0.208 | 0.235 | 0.334 | 0.351 | 0.244 | 0.153 | Belize |
| 0.206 | 0.235 | 0.331 | 0.353 | 0.249 | 0.155 | Honduras |
| 0.204 | 0.233 | 0.323 | 0.349 | 0.253 | 0.155 | Guatemala |
| 0.204 | 0.255 | 0.360 | 0.342 | 0.232 | 0.152 | Philippines |
| 0.202 | 0.267 | 0.360 | 0.344 | 0.232 | 0.151 | Nepal |
| 0.197 | 0.249 | 0.381 | 0.331 | 0.210 | 0.149 | Brunei Darussalam |
| 0.194 | 0.237 | 0.331 | 0.330 | 0.233 | 0.146 | Haiti |
| 0.193 | 0.251 | 0.355 | 0.325 | 0.220 | 0.145 | South Africa |
| 0.193 | 0.222 | 0.339 | 0.316 | 0.220 | 0.145 | Turkmenistan |
| 0.192 | 0.247 | 0.343 | 0.321 | 0.224 | 0.142 | Egypt |
| 0.192 | 0.262 | 0.376 | 0.318 | 0.206 | 0.142 | Fiji |
| 0.188 | 0.220 | 0.335 | 0.310 | 0.217 | 0.141 | Kyrgyzstan |
| 0.188 | 0.245 | 0.353 | 0.344 | 0.216 | 0.143 | French Guiana |
| 0.187 | 0.219 | 0.340 | 0.317 | 0.212 | 0.142 | Uzbekistan |
| 0.185 | 0.224 | 0.323 | 0.317 | 0.222 | 0.140 | Syrian Arab Republic |
| 0.182 | 0.226 | 0.324 | 0.307 | 0.216 | 0.140 | Libya |
| 0.181 | 0.229 | 0.319 | 0.308 | 0.221 | 0.136 | Lesotho |
| 0.173 | 0.216 | 0.320 | 0.294 | 0.201 | 0.130 | Mongolia |
| 0.170 | 0.225 | 0.317 | 0.287 | 0.205 | 0.128 | Djibouti |
| 0.170 | 0.238 | 0.325 | 0.271 | 0.197 | 0.126 | Samoa |
| 0.168 | 0.221 | 0.314 | 0.288 | 0.199 | 0.126 | Cambodia |
| 0.164 | 0.210 | 0.292 | 0.274 | 0.206 | 0.123 | Pakistan |
| 0.158 | 0.204 | 0.273 | 0.268 | 0.208 | 0.118 | Eritrea |
| 0.157 | 0.183 | 0.277 | 0.252 | 0.203 | 0.123 | Maldives |
| 0.157 | 0.194 | 0.268 | 0.281 | 0.212 | 0.120 | Mayotte |
| 0.156 | 0.199 | 0.279 | 0.260 | 0.199 | 0.118 | Jordan |
| 0.155 | 0.203 | 0.289 | 0.263 | 0.193 | 0.115 | Botswana |
| 0.154 | 0.199 | 0.287 | 0.257 | 0.191 | 0.115 | Lao People's Democratic Republic |
| 0.152 | 0.209 | 0.279 | 0.253 | 0.197 | 0.113 | Timor-Leste |
| 0.146 | 0.180 | 0.282 | 0.248 | 0.177 | 0.112 | Saudi Arabia |
| 0.145 | 0.187 | 0.254 | 0.239 | 0.199 | 0.109 | Eswatini |
| 0.139 | 0.173 | 0.248 | 0.234 | 0.188 | 0.104 | Namibia |
| 0.135 | 0.176 | 0.302 | 0.222 | 0.145 | 0.103 | Kuwait |
| 0.134 | 0.173 | 0.244 | 0.224 | 0.183 | 0.100 | Sudan |
| 0.133 | 0.173 | 0.245 | 0.221 | 0.182 | 0.101 | Gabon |
| 0.130 | 0.167 | 0.231 | 0.216 | 0.183 | 0.096 | Ethiopia |
| 0.130 | 0.174 | 0.242 | 0.224 | 0.179 | 0.098 | Solomon Islands |
| 0.128 | 0.158 | 0.245 | 0.207 | 0.169 | 0.095 | Tajikistan |
| 0.127 | 0.165 | 0.236 | 0.212 | 0.176 | 0.094 | Africa |
| 0.125 | 0.157 | 0.229 | 0.212 | 0.176 | 0.095 | Iraq |
| 0.125 | 0.150 | 0.253 | 0.199 | 0.156 | 0.093 | Bahrain |
| 0.124 | 0.163 | 0.225 | 0.204 | 0.176 | 0.092 | South Sudan |
| 0.123 | 0.168 | 0.244 | 0.196 | 0.163 | 0.091 | Vanuatu |
| 0.122 | 0.165 | 0.247 | 0.204 | 0.160 | 0.090 | Papua New Guinea |
| 0.121 | 0.157 | 0.226 | 0.203 | 0.171 | 0.091 | Liberia |
| 0.121 | 0.157 | 0.222 | 0.203 | 0.173 | 0.090 | Benin |
| 0.120 | 0.155 | 0.224 | 0.199 | 0.170 | 0.089 | Mauritania |
| 0.120 | 0.157 | 0.222 | 0.196 | 0.171 | 0.089 | State of Palestine |
| 0.119 | 0.150 | 0.219 | 0.173 | 0.170 | 0.089 | Sao Tome and Principe |
| 0.118 | 0.178 | 0.278 | 0.228 | 0.136 | 0.087 | Micronesia (Fed. States of) |
| 0.118 | 0.138 | 0.222 | 0.195 | 0.165 | 0.090 | Oman |
| 0.118 | 0.160 | 0.260 | 0.195 | 0.143 | 0.087 | Western Sahara |
| 0.116 | 0.157 | 0.230 | 0.190 | 0.159 | 0.085 | Ghana |
| 0.116 | 0.146 | 0.216 | 0.193 | 0.166 | 0.086 | Madagascar |
| 0.113 | 0.149 | 0.220 | 0.193 | 0.162 | 0.085 | Comoros |
| 0.112 | 0.142 | 0.205 | 0.188 | 0.169 | 0.085 | Zimbabwe |
| 0.112 | 0.146 | 0.216 | 0.193 | 0.161 | 0.083 | Rwanda |
| 0.111 | 0.146 | 0.208 | 0.184 | 0.165 | 0.083 | Senegal |
| 0.110 | 0.144 | 0.203 | 0.182 | 0.166 | 0.081 | Democratic Republic of the Congo |
| 0.107 | 0.139 | 0.202 | 0.175 | 0.160 | 0.078 | Yemen |
| 0.106 | 0.141 | 0.203 | 0.174 | 0.159 | 0.079 | Sierra Leone |
| 0.103 | 0.165 | 0.239 | 0.197 | 0.135 | 0.076 | Kiribati |
| 0.103 | 0.136 | 0.192 | 0.168 | 0.160 | 0.076 | Mozambique |
| 0.102 | 0.135 | 0.192 | 0.168 | 0.158 | 0.075 | Somalia |
| 0.102 | 0.139 | 0.202 | 0.168 | 0.152 | 0.075 | Togo |
| 0.101 | 0.137 | 0.201 | 0.166 | 0.152 | 0.075 | Congo |
| 0.101 | 0.133 | 0.191 | 0.166 | 0.156 | 0.074 | Central African Republic |
| 0.100 | 0.134 | 0.194 | 0.166 | 0.154 | 0.074 | Guinea |
| 0.100 | 0.135 | 0.197 | 0.165 | 0.152 | 0.074 | Côte d'Ivoire |
| 0.098 | 0.130 | 0.189 | 0.160 | 0.153 | 0.072 | Cameroon |
| 0.097 | 0.130 | 0.192 | 0.160 | 0.150 | 0.071 | Guinea-Bissau |
| 0.097 | 0.129 | 0.183 | 0.157 | 0.155 | 0.071 | Malawi |
| 0.096 | 0.129 | 0.186 | 0.157 | 0.152 | 0.071 | United Republic of Tanzania |
| 0.096 | 0.128 | 0.184 | 0.156 | 0.151 | 0.070 | Afghanistan |
| 0.094 | 0.122 | 0.186 | 0.153 | 0.148 | 0.070 | Kenya |
| 0.094 | 0.130 | 0.190 | 0.154 | 0.145 | 0.068 | Nigeria |
| 0.092 | 0.118 | 0.179 | 0.149 | 0.149 | 0.069 | Equatorial Guinea |
| 0.091 | 0.126 | 0.177 | 0.146 | 0.149 | 0.067 | Gambia |
| 0.091 | 0.116 | 0.170 | 0.150 | 0.152 | 0.067 | Chad |
| 0.090 | 0.112 | 0.203 | 0.141 | 0.126 | 0.067 | Qatar |
| 0.088 | 0.121 | 0.172 | 0.146 | 0.147 | 0.064 | Niger |
| 0.088 | 0.118 | 0.173 | 0.144 | 0.145 | 0.064 | Burkina Faso |
| 0.088 | 0.109 | 0.169 | 0.144 | 0.146 | 0.064 | Burundi |
| 0.087 | 0.117 | 0.169 | 0.145 | 0.147 | 0.064 | Mali |
| 0.085 | 0.111 | 0.164 | 0.139 | 0.145 | 0.063 | Angola |
| 0.083 | 0.104 | 0.190 | 0.130 | 0.124 | 0.063 | United Arab Emirates |
| 0.083 | 0.107 | 0.158 | 0.134 | 0.144 | 0.061 | Zambia |
| 0.074 | 0.099 | 0.147 | 0.121 | 0.137 | 0.054 | Uganda |
| ENE-COV | US_CDC | Verity | Levin | Gudbj | O'Drisc | Region |
Note that in addition to countries, there are rows for each continent and for the world.
## Findings
The overall IFR estimates, with the exception of Levin et al., are relatively
The overall IFR estimates, with the exception of Levin et al. and O’Driscoll et al., are relatively
consistent with each other, usually within 30-40%. Levin et al. is up to
2-fold higher than the others, depending on the country.
The country with the oldest population is expected to have the highest overall
IFR: Japan at 1.3-1.6% (excluding Levin et al.)
IFR: Japan at 1.3-1.6% (excluding Levin et al. and O’Driscoll et al.)
The country with the youngest population is expected to have the lowest overall
IFR: Uganda at 0.074-0.147%
apply_ifr.py
+27 -4
View File
@@ -89,6 +89,29 @@ ifrs = [
(81,maxage): 11.2,
}),
# O’Driscoll et al., Age-specific mortality and immunity patterns of SARS-CoV-2 infection in 45 countries
# https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.08.24.20180851v1
# (table S4)
("O'Drisc", {
(0,4): 0.002,
(5,9): 0.000,
(10,14): 0.000,
(15,19): 0.002,
(20,24): 0.004,
(25,29): 0.009,
(30,34): 0.017,
(35,39): 0.029,
(40,44): 0.053,
(45,49): 0.086,
(50,54): 0.154,
(55,59): 0.241,
(60,64): 0.359,
(65,69): 0.642,
(70,74): 1.076,
(75,79): 2.276,
(80,maxage): 7.274,
}),
]
def ag2str(age_group):
@@ -148,8 +171,8 @@ def calc_overall_ifrs():
def show_overall_ifrs(oifrs):
def header():
for i in ifrs:
print(f'{i[0]:>7} ', end='')
print('')
print(f'| {i[0]:>7} ', end='')
print('| Region |')
# Each entry in the oifrs array is a tuple:
# (<region_name>, <ifr_according_to_1st_estimate>, <ifr_according_to_2nd_estimate>, ...)
# Sort by element index 1, that is by <ifr_according_to_1st_estimate>
@@ -158,8 +181,8 @@ def show_overall_ifrs(oifrs):
header()
for region in oifrs:
for i in region[1:]:
print(f'{i:7.3f} ', end='')
print(f' {region[0]}')
print(f'| {i:7.3f} ', end='')
print(f'| {region[0]} |')
header()
def main():