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README: explain indicators

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Marc Bevand
2020-09-30 23:13:51 -07:00
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@@ -12,10 +12,16 @@ This project studies the age-stratified infection fatality ratio (IFR) of COVID-
![Infection Fatality Ratio of COVID-19 vs. Seasonal Influenza](covid_vs_flu.png)
The above chart compares the IFR of COVID-19 to the IFR of seasonal influenza. We
find that COVID-19 is definitely significantly more fatal than seasonal influenza at all
ages above 30 years. The source code to create this chart is
[covid_vs_flu.py](covid_vs_flu.py). The COVID-19 IFR curves represent various
estimates:
find that COVID-19 is definitely significantly more fatal than influenza at all
ages above 30 years. The source code producing this chart is
[covid_vs_flu.py](covid_vs_flu.py).
The vertical indicators represent the difference in fatality between COVID-19
and influenza at various ages, from 30 to 80 years at 10-year intervals. The
top/bottom of the indicators are anchored at the geometric means of the
COVID-19/influenza IFR estimates.
The COVID-19 IFR curves represent these estimates:
1. ENE-COVID Spanish serosurvey (calculated by `calc_ifr.py`, see [this section](#calculating-the-age-stratified-ifr-of-covid-19-from-the-spanish-ene-covid-study))
1. [US CDC COVID-19 Pandemic Planning Scenarios](https://web.archive.org/web/20200911222029/https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/hcp/planning-scenarios.html) (table 1)